New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced a slightly weak monsoon in July 2011, in a press conference here on Tuesday. An average of 95-96 percent rainfall is expected for this monsoon season.
Science and Technology Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal, however, discounted fears of its adverse impact, saying the distribution of rainfall across the country so far
has been uniform and there could be even improvement given the
model error margin of plus or minus four percent.
"It is not a reason to worry," he told reporters here.
While speaking to Zee News, agriculture specialist Vijay Sardana said, “If the spread of the monsoon nationwide remains fine and normal, then there is no need to worry. There will also be no adverse effect on the climate. Also it is very soon to speculate that it would be a normal or weak monsoon.”
While replying to a question about a variation in the weather forecast, Sardana said, “The forecasts are computer generated stipulations in which even a small change in data can bring out wide range of variations. So it is better to wait for the monsoon to arrive. The amount of variation will have very less effect of agriculture.”
Earlier on April 19, Met Dept had forecast a normal monsoon season the second consecutive year. In a press release on the long range forecast for the 2011, the weathermen had predicted that the south-west monsoon season (June to September) rainfall is most likely to be normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)), adding that there is very low probability for season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA). India witnessed one of the worst droughts in recent times when the monsoon had failed in the year 2009.
IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi attributed the
revised forecast to factors like "weakening of the La nina
condition (associated with monsoon) which has become neutral,
the below temperature over Indian ocean and the pressure over
the North Atlantic which has become unfavourable."
Over the four broad geographical regions of the
country, rainfall this season is likely to be 97 percent of
its long period average over North-West India, 95 percent
over North East India, 95 percent over Central India and 94
percent over South peninsula, with a model error of plus or
minus eight percent.
Some private weather forecasters have predicted an erratic start to this year`s monsoon which according to them will pick up towards the end bringing good rains in August and September.
Weather scientists, however, said that some pockets of the country, particularly the food bowl north western region could experience deficit rains.