Pak generals trying to dislodge Zardari: US think tank

Fearing that Obama Administration wants Pakistan Army to be brought under effective civilian control, the military generals are conspiring to dislodge President Asif Ali Zardari through democratic means and political channels.

Washington: Fearing that Obama Administration wants Pakistan Army to be brought under effective civilian control, the military generals are
conspiring to dislodge President Asif Ali Zardari through
democratic means and political channels.

The fear, among the generals, who have ruled Pakistan
for majority of years after independence is also that Zardari
with his enhanced powers of presidency might appoint generals
of his choice, when the Army`s present top hierarchy comes up
for retirement in October next year, according to a leading US
intelligence think tank.

The Pakistan military, the think tank Stratfor said
sees the alignment of the Obama Administration with Zardari as
further undermining its position at a time when its power
within the country already has weakened because of the rise of
civilian forces and a raging Taliban insurgency.

Noting that both this domestic situation and pressure
from Washington have placed considerable limits on the ability
of the military to dislodge civilian government, Stratfor said
the military was now using its influence to help align forces
against the president, to force him out of office with a
veneer of legality.

"The goal is thus not to unseat the current
government, but to get rid of Zardari in such a way that looks
like the byproduct of a constitutional process rather than of
a coup -- a return to the times when the military dismissed
four different governments between 1985 and 1999," Stratfor
said.

Riling up the opposition against the controversial
National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) is thus a means of
forcing Zardari into a corner, it said.

Stratfor said the Obama administration feels that
unless the army is brought under civilian control, Washington
cannot deal with the region`s Taliban problem.

This is because the Pakistani security establishment
draws a distinction between "good" Taliban that fight in
Afghanistan and "bad" Taliban that wage war in Pakistan, it
argued.

Also what has antagonised the Army is the aid package
for Pakistan recently signed into law recently, which calls
for civilian supremacy over the military in Pakistan, and
represents a bid by Washington to work with the Zardari
government to rein in the Pakistani military.

Stratfor said the Pakistani military as an institution
has remained deeply opposed to Zardari, though it has
continued to work with him.

"This is due to the fact that the army and the
Inter-Services Intelligence directorate feel no good
alternative to Zardari exists capable of leading Pakistan.

PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif is seen as unreliable given
his past struggles with the army and his recent moves to
emerge as the torchbearer for democracy," it said.

Noting that one key power of the enhanced presidency
is the ability to appoint high-level army officials, the
think-tank said this power will come into play when current
army chief General Ashfaq Kayani retires in October 2010.

Pakistan`s other four-star general, Joint Chiefs of
Staff Chairman Gen Tariq Majid, is due to retire at the same
time, and current ISI chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha could
retire as early as March 2010.

"The Zardari government would like to use this
opportunity to appoint generals of its own choice to these top
military and intelligence posts, something the armed forces
deem extremely unacceptable.

The military thus would like to see Zardari`s
departure from office before that can happen," Stratfor said.

Bureau Report

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