Lucknow: Uttar Pradesh recorded 64 percent polling in the first of the seven-phased elections on Saturday. Various permutation and combinations have been projected by political commentators with some asserting Samajwadi Party will be wresting power while others suggesting there may be windfall for BJP.
Here are some observations from the ground zero:
1) A large number of Muslims seem to have voted for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in Western Uttar Pradesh. And Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is not the first choice for Muslim voters. Muslims have reportedly voted in favour of SP's Hindu nominees in places like Budhana in Muzaffarnagar district.
2) Muslims voting for SP is a major setback for Mayawati as she tried hard to woo them by fielding more candidates from the community. Muslims make up 17 percent of the state's population. In Western UP, they constitute 26 percent.
3) The Jat bloc stood divided in their support of BJP as opposed to the 2014 general elections when they overwhielmingly voted for Narendra Modi.
Jat votes in the 73 constituencies, polled on Saturday, was split between BJP and Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. While the younger Jats favoured BJP, the older ones preferred RLD, reports suggest.
4) Jats are apparently unhappy with BJP for not heeding to their reservation demand. The Jat agitaion in Haryana was also felt in Western UP as voters felt the BJP has manipulated them post the 2014 Muzzafarnagar riots.
5) RLD, which has the support of Jat-dominated constituencies in UP, is likely to spoil the safrom party's chances this time.
6) BJP seems to have full support of the upper caste in Western UP but backward communities may not have sided with the saffron party. BJP now hopes to make some gains over a possible split in the Muslim votes.
7) The saffron party has been eyeing UP ever since its spectacular victory in 2014. Party’s national president Amit Shah has launched a series of public rallies in the run up to the polls. However, it may lose out for not projecting a chief ministerial face.
8) Polarisation in and around Muzaffarnagar is still evident. But what's strange though is that both Jats and Muslims, who fought with each other during the Muzaffarnagar riots, are now vowing to defeat the BJP.
9) All party leaders have spoken on demonetisation but note ban is not an issue for a lot of voters, particularly in the rural areas.
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Winners and losers in UP first-phase election: Highlights
Lucknow: Uttar Pradesh recorded 64 percent polling in the first of the seven-phased elections on Saturday. Various permutation and combinations have been projected by political commentators with some asserting Samajwadi Party will be wresting power while others suggesting there may be windfall for BJP.
Here are some observations from the ground zero:
1) Speculations, fatwas and edicts aside, a large number of Muslims seem have voted for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in western Uttar Pradesh, reports suggest.
If initial reports are to be believed, Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has not emerged as the first choice of the community despite fielding 100 Muslim candidates.
Muslims have seemingly thrown their weight behind the Samajwadi Party's (SP) Hindu nominees in constituencies like Budhana in Muzaffarnagar district, rejecting the BSP's candidates from their own community.
Mustaqim, a papaya vendor in Budhana, was one of the first to arrive at a polling booth in his area. "I can bring in a cycle home, but not an elephant," said Mustaqim.
2) Going by the initial reports, Muslims leaning towards the Samajwadi Party in Western UP is an alarm for Mayawati. The region has been her traditional stronghold.
In the last election, the BSP won as many seats as the Samajwadi Party despite a strong pro-SP wave back then.
A trail in these 73 constituencies will spell trouble for the BSP in the next four phases of the assembly election. Muslims make up 17 per cent of the state's population. In Western UP, they constitute 26 percent.
3) Securing considerable Muslim support in Western UP is a positive sign for the Samajwadi Party.
The SP can now hope that this trend will continue in other parts of the state as well. That said, translating Muslim votes into seats in western Uttar Pradesh remains a challenge for Akhilesh Yadav as the region hardly has a solid Yadav bloc.
Nor has Western UP any other caste group that could have lent support to the Samajwadi Party, together with Muslims, to help Yadav win a sizeable number of constituencies in this part of the state. A factor in Samajwadi Party's favour is Akhilesh Yadav's sway over young voters.
For BSP, backing from Muslims along with the support from the loyal Dalit bloc can help Mayawati lay foundation for a glorious victory.
4) In contrast to the BJP's tall claims, Jats are in no mood to hide their resentment against the saffron party.
Unlike the 2014 General elections when Jats voted in favour of Narendra Modi and the BJP, the bloc is divided this time.
Jats are a decisive force in most of the 73 constituencies that polled on Saturday. And in most of these boroughs, the Jat vote-bloc was divided between the BJP and Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
Jat voters, especially the elderly, in rural areas were heard saying that they will vote for the RLD "to teach BJP a lesson". In cities though, Jats, especially young, said they would support the BJP.
5) Jats are angry with the BJP for not fulfilling their demand of reservation in government jobs.
The impact of the Jat agitation in Haryana is visible in western Uttar Pradesh. The community remembers the death of 21 Jats during the agitation in Haryana last year.
Many Jats, with whom India Today spoke, felt they were used by the BJP during the 2014 elections post the Muzaffarnagar riots and got nothing in return.
In Kharad village along the Muzaffarnagar-Shamli road, Jitendra Malik was upset with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Narendra Modi , he said, did not forget to congratulate Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif on his birthday but would not post a single tweet on the birth anniversary of late Jat leader Chaudhary Charan Singh.
6) Ajit Singh's RLD has managed to win support in a number of Jat-dominated constituencies, and is likely to spoil the BJP's party this time.
On its own though, the RLD will be able to secure only a handful of seats as besides anti-BJP Jats it has not got backing from any other caste.
7) The BJP hopes for some gains out of a possible division of Muslim votes. However, going by early trends, the voting pattern may cause some worry to the party.
While the BJP seems to have full-fledged support of upper castes in western UP, the backward communities may not have sided with the saffron party, which initially appeared to be successful in wooing them.
8) Speculations were rife the BJP might lose out for not projecting a chief ministerial face.
On the ground, it seems the party is winning support mostly in Narendra Modi 's name though the Modi wave is weaker compared to 2014 General Elections. Yet, reports suggest that people are voting for the BJP because of Prime Minister Modi.
9) Polarisation in and around Muzaffarnagar has weakened but still exists.
What's strange though is that both the Jats and the Muslims -- who mostly fought with each other during the Muzaffarnagar riots -- are now vowing to defeat the BJP.
10) Demonetisation is not an issue for a lot of voters, especially in rural areas.
Candidates and party leaders spoke about note ban but the rural farming community in western UP has other issues on its mind.
In the sugar belt, difficulties of cane farmers are a significant issue. Local farmers are worried about the competition from their counterparts in Haryana who are selling their produce to sugar mills of Muzaffarnagar and Shamli in western UP.
