Washington: US' pre-occupation with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has given Russia space to spread its influence in the former USSR states, and its consolidation in
2010 could pave way for Moscow's re-emergence as a major power, a leading American intelligence think tank has said.
"For Russia, 2010 will be a year of consolidation ? the culmination of years of careful efforts," global intelligence company Stratfor said in its annual forecast for 2010.
"In the coming year, Russia will excise the bulk of what Western and Turkish influence remains from Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and try to lay
the groundwork for the reformulation of a political union in much of the former Soviet space," it said.
While the project will not be completed in 2010, Stratfor said, by the year's end it will be obvious that the former Soviet Union is Russia's "sphere of influence" and that any
effort to change that must be monumental if it is to succeed.
In the 1990s the US became very comfortable with the idea of Russian weakness, and in the 2000s the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have utterly consumed US military capacity, it said.
"With the recent decision to send even more forces into Afghanistan, the US preoccupation with the Islamic world will become all-consuming, allowing Russia to do as it pleases in its near abroad," it said.
PTI
First Published: Tuesday, January 05, 2010, 15:56