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Whose caste card will turn up trumps? : The Pioneer
Lucknow, May 05: After two rounds of high-pitch electioneering in the state, action now shifts to the last round in areas adjacent to the national Capital in western Uttar Pradesh. Probably before Thursday dawns, political wizards will once again be charting out strategies for the 18 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state that go to the polls on May 10.
Lucknow, May 05: After two rounds of high-pitch electioneering in the state, action now shifts to the last round in areas adjacent to the national Capital in western Uttar Pradesh. Probably before Thursday dawns, political wizards will once again be charting out strategies for the 18 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state that go to the polls on May 10.
However, on Wednesday, voters across the state will virtually decide who calls the shots at the Centre. Even though chaos and uncertainty engulf UP, it revels in uneasy calm at the time of elections. Little wonder, it springs surprises. The story has been no different so far. Spasms of Feel-Good, rumblings over foreign origin, unemployment, privatisation or even scrapping of districts seem to be lost in the intricate caste equations which conjure up winnability.
Omnipresent politicians pander to emotions. The likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Kalyan Singh and Mayawati, and a stranded Congress (it does not really have a noteworthy leader in the state), have played the caste card to the hilt despite flaying casteism and opportunism.
Mr Yadav so far has banked on the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) factor, while the BJP has hoped that its upper caste voters, along with Mr Singh's Lodh-Kurmi supporters, will see it through in the multi-cornered contest where the Muslims are unsure of whom to back. This would hurt the BSP the most as in the last Assembly elections, it was catapulted to power essentially because of an impressive combination of Dalit-Muslim voters.
Brahmins, who shifted allegiance from the Congress to the BJP because of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee post-Ayodhya, are still in a quandary. The Congress thrust in the state is mainly from Sonia Gandhi whose acceptability within the party ranks smacks more of sycophancy than of leadership qualities.
Ominously, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party have been the front-runners in the state so far with Mr Singh and Mr Yadav set to play king-makers in the very near future. Both, therefore, have their tasks cut out. Wednesday's polling is bound to strengthen Mr Singh's clout within the saffron ranks if he reinforces the party's prospects in central UP, where a large chunk of voters can be swayed by his battle cry. Mr Yadav, on his part, would like to consolidate his domain in the Yadav-dominated regions which vote on May 5. He will, probably, get the desired results as he has also been successful to an extent in garnering the support of the Thakurs, courtesy a languishing image of POTA detenue Raja Bhaiyya.
Their stakes, albeit high, differ. Mr Singh and the BJP are well aware that if the voters' franchise on Wednesday is a mandate for bijli, sadak and paani with stability a decisive factor, the battle is nearly won.
Besides, the Congress would be compelled to maintain a studied silence rather than prop up a boisterous Secular Front at the Centre.
The BJP, therefore, has unleashed all its stalwarts in the state to campaign vigorously, unlike the first phase. With around 15 rallies a day, the BJP central leadership displayed its political mettle by dispatching various heavyweights to counter a lone Mulayam, Mayawati or a Sonia kin. These the efforts are bound to reflect in Wednesday's Exit Polls.Mr Yadav is indeed working single-handedly with a sense of wary optimism. If the NDA is found short of the magic figure of 273, Mr Yadav will be keen to call the shots at the Centre. And, there will be several others nursing a similar dream.
The least the BJP can do to rattle the SP supremo is to ensure that there is a higher turnout in the state. With upper caste voters generally laidback in their approach when it comes to voting, the BJP would lose if the polling percentage is below 50-55 as was evident after the first phase. However, with the RSS moving in to mobilise support and the BJP campaigning aggressively, the Exit Polls are likely to bring cheer to the BJP camp before the final assault on May 10.
Ominously, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party have been the front-runners in the state so far with Mr Singh and Mr Yadav set to play king-makers in the very near future. Both, therefore, have their tasks cut out. Wednesday's polling is bound to strengthen Mr Singh's clout within the saffron ranks if he reinforces the party's prospects in central UP, where a large chunk of voters can be swayed by his battle cry. Mr Yadav, on his part, would like to consolidate his domain in the Yadav-dominated regions which vote on May 5. He will, probably, get the desired results as he has also been successful to an extent in garnering the support of the Thakurs, courtesy a languishing image of POTA detenue Raja Bhaiyya.
Their stakes, albeit high, differ. Mr Singh and the BJP are well aware that if the voters' franchise on Wednesday is a mandate for bijli, sadak and paani with stability a decisive factor, the battle is nearly won.
Besides, the Congress would be compelled to maintain a studied silence rather than prop up a boisterous Secular Front at the Centre.
The BJP, therefore, has unleashed all its stalwarts in the state to campaign vigorously, unlike the first phase. With around 15 rallies a day, the BJP central leadership displayed its political mettle by dispatching various heavyweights to counter a lone Mulayam, Mayawati or a Sonia kin. These the efforts are bound to reflect in Wednesday's Exit Polls.Mr Yadav is indeed working single-handedly with a sense of wary optimism. If the NDA is found short of the magic figure of 273, Mr Yadav will be keen to call the shots at the Centre. And, there will be several others nursing a similar dream.
The least the BJP can do to rattle the SP supremo is to ensure that there is a higher turnout in the state. With upper caste voters generally laidback in their approach when it comes to voting, the BJP would lose if the polling percentage is below 50-55 as was evident after the first phase. However, with the RSS moving in to mobilise support and the BJP campaigning aggressively, the Exit Polls are likely to bring cheer to the BJP camp before the final assault on May 10.