The General & his tribulations

Ajith Vijay Kumar

General Pervez Musharraf is facing the biggest crisis since he came to power by overthrowing the Nawaz Sharif govt 1999. Amidst mounting concerns about the situation in Pakistan, President Musharraf was reportedly even mulling the possibility of declaring a state of emergency. Elections to the country are round the corner and Musharraf would like the least hostile party to win majority. He had himself planned to get re-elected in uniform by the current Parliament October 15. Although Musharraf commands majority in the present house, he would most certainly faced multiple constitutional challenges in court. And, this after the Supreme Court`s July 20 decision to reinstate a Chief Justice Choudhary; a bitter opponent of Musharraf regime. Besides, the Supreme Court is about to deliver judgment on a petition challenging the decision by General Musharraf to continue holding two offices and he had all the valid reasons to believe that the judgment would go against his favour.

The General’s troubles

Benazir Bhutto

Benazir’s strong stand that she would not be a party to his plans to get re-elected in uniform, after weeks of parleys about an impending agreement between the two meant that Musharraf understands that he cannot depend on her to pacify the Opposition in Pakistan towards his regime.

And, now when the Sindh High Court has ordered withdrawal of "red corner notices" issued by Interpol in 2005, her return to Pakistan seems eminent.

The General understands that Benazir reaching Pakistan at this time would have serious ramifications for him and his regime.

Nawaz Sharif

The Sharif brothers have been one of the biggest opponents of Musharraf, that’s understandable because it was Musharraf who sent them on exile. And, now with the Supreme Court accepting their petition regarding return and also making it clear that there’s nothing “unconstitutional” in Sharif’s return, the General understands that their return could lead to the formation of a possible united front with the potential to even overthrow his regime.

The Judiciary

The judiciary has been a long standing albatross around Musharraf’s neck. Justice Choudhary has been successful in generating a lot of support against his rule. Musharraf knows that the judiciary won’t ever allow him to continue in his present capacities and would lend a helping hand to all those powers within Pakistan looking for an opportune moment to dislodge him from power.

By declaring emergency, Musharraf aims to contain judiciary’s influence, especially its envisioned role in future attempts to overthrow him from power.

No popular support

President Pervez Musharraf`s approval ratings have nosedived 20 points in four months to 34 percent by early July, recent US survey found.

Losing grip on Army

Reports have been emanating from Rawalpindi that some Army Commanders have suggested to President Musharraf to quit in view of the mounting crisis he is facing. The army has been solidly standing behind him till now; if these reports are true then Musharraf indubitably has reasons to worry, for he knows without the army supporting him he would not last one day.

The Militia & Lal Masjid

The Lal Masjid operation and its aftermath have resulted in a rapidly deteriorating security situation in Pakistan, especially in the North West Frontier Province.

Suicide bombings have become a daily affair, Musharraf knows that the militia, that until recently flourished under state patronage can cause serious trouble. The recent foiled attacks on him add credence to his fear for security and his relative inability to reign-in such forces.

Additionally, Musharraf has been angered by accusations from Washington that Pakistan has become a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and a regrouped Taliban.

Musharraf believes that emergency can provide him with all the executive powers “without accountability” needed to act and react against the militias.

The US

Days after declaring that it retains the option of attacking militant hideouts in tribal areas of Pakistan, the US has described President Pervez Musharraf as an "indispensable partner" in the fight against al-Qaeda.

The US needs him. They know he is their best bet. That’s why US won’t support any measure that can lead to destabilization of his regime, even if that meant going against the fundamentals of democracy. At the moment US’ principle concern is to ensure that the nukes lying around in Pakistan’s military bases don’t fall into the hands of al Qaeda.

They need him…till they find a replacement.

India’s options

The present situation warrants that the Indian establishment should support Musharraf. Agreed he is not democratic, he was the man behind Kargil, but the fact remains --- there’s no credible substitute for Musharraf as of now.

It’s for certain that if Musharraf losses control now, it would mean serious trouble for India. The US, thousand of miles away from Pakistan might be "worried" about the nukes, but for us it’s just across the border.