Naveen`s Waterloo

D N Singh

Naveen`s questionable victory on March 11 in the confidence vote seems to have done him more harm than good . Rumours doing the rounds have it that the Orissa governor is contemplating reconvening the Assembly for a fresh vote on the fate of Patnaik’s government, following questions raised by the opposition over the way the confidence vote was conducted. What seems apparent is that Naveen Patnaik is now caught in a problem of his own making. It would be a huge embarrassment for his government if there is a fresh vote of confidence. Regardless of the outcome, this would seriously dent his much touted transparent image. The message has gone out loud and clear to people all across the state that his government was desperate to wriggle out of the claws of the opposition during the test of strength in the Assembly and chose the unprecedented escape route of a voice vote. When Naveen had the support of 81 members, why then the voice vote? This question has not only irritated parties ready to support his government but has undermined the confidence that people had in Patnaik; they feel he should not have done what he did. Whether the Governor`s recommendations are binding on the Assembly or not, or whether the Speaker enjoys the discretion of going for a voice vote on important matters like a confidence motion, is a different question all together. But the whole development has shown the Chief Minister in a bad light, it seemed as if he wanted to run away from an actual vote through such a short-cut. Secondly, it does not augur well for him to stay non-committal on the issue of the Third Front, a supposedly political buoy he wants to sail on to his third term. Though there has been frequent parleys between him and the Third Front standard bearer, the Left, yet his silence on any pre-poll alliance with any political party is viewed as a clear indication that Naveen might go to the polls on his own, barring a few seat adjustments with supporting outfits. In this he seems to be making the same tactical error that his late father Biju Patnaik made in 1995, when he booted out his alliance partner the Left and went to the polls alone. He lost the election so spectacularly that his strength in the Assembly was reduced from 80 to 46. Experts in the field look at current developments as a virtual repeat of history when a similar set of advisers, including one who is also in Naveen’s coterie, had been able to misguide the legendary Biju Patnaik. It is difficult to understand as to why Naveen Patnaik has put his confusions out in the open time and again through his own orchestrated statements. On the one hand he says BJD has the strength to win a minimum of hundred seats on its own, and on the other he speaks in monosyllables while talking about a Third Front. Yet he does not mind posing for the cameras while shaking hands with the Left leaders ! Lastly, by distancing himself from the Third Front rally in Karnataka, Naveen has signalled that alliances with either the Third Front or the UPA will only be considered after the polls. If that was the game-plan of the BJD supremo then he could have done without cobbling together support for the confidence vote and should have instead stepped down and sought a fresh mandate. Guessing game goes on While the Governor of Orissa has kept everyone guessing over the `controversial` voice vote in the Orissa Assembly on March 11, the opposition seems to be scrambling for an easy way out before the long-drawn constitutional episode turns out to be a pre-poll boon for the BJD. Suspense hangs over the fact as to whether there shall be fresh voting or Patnaik government be asked to go. After the vote of confidence in the Assembly, the obvious fall-out has left no doubt that there were lapses the way the show was conducted and the standard practice was allegedly overlooked. After that the matter has been taken to the state`s Governor who has, meanwhile, talked to the Congress and the BJP twice. Then the Chief Minister was also summoned on March 13 who has submitted a letter to the Governor reiterating his claim of having the required majority to save his government. Now the question is what is the Governor going to do. The vote of confidence being passed by a voice vote in unprecedented not only in the history of Orissa Assembly but also of the Lok Sabha, says Pinakhi Mishra, senior advocate in the Supreme Court. “In such circumstances, a headcount is unavoidable and votes need to be recorded.” Mishra added. It is not clear if the Congress is weighing the option to challenge the voice vote legally, but with a month to go before the polls, the rank and file in both the camps are worried and the splinter groups supporting the Naveen Government seem irritated over the inordinate delay in the kick off.