Bihar Polls: Caste Equations Or Campaign Promises – What Will Sway Bihar’s Voters In Phase One

As Bihar heads into its first phase of polling on November 6 (Thursday), the familiar tug of caste loyalties meets a new wave of promises on jobs, welfare and women’s empowerment.

Bihar Election 2025: The first phase of the Bihar Assembly election, scheduled for November 6, will test both tradition and change. Political parties have spent weeks working out caste equations and announcing welfare promises. So, what will matter more to voters this time: caste or campaign pledges?

Caste has been the immovable pillar of Bihar’s politics for decades. Every political party plans its candidates and messaging around it. But this election feels slightly different. Both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan have made their manifestos not only on identity, but also on aspiration of young voters seeking jobs and women wanting empowerment. Youth and women make up the two largest groups in the state’s 7.45 crore electorate.

The NDA’s “Sankalp Patra” opens with a promise to create 1 crore jobs in the next five years. It also pledges to set up a mega skill centre in each district and turn Bihar into a “global skilling hub”. The alliance has said it will attract Rs 1 lakh crore in investment and build manufacturing units and 10 industrial parks across the state.

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The promises are ambitious and aimed at wooing electorates in small towns and jobless youth who restless and forced to migrate to bigger cities in search of employment.

Janata Dal (United) or JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar’s health has become a talking point in the campaign. He appeared briefly at the NDA’s manifesto release but did not address the event. His declining visibility has caused unease within the alliance. Earlier, his personal image helped the NDA draw Muslim votes. This time, many Muslim voters may prefer the Mahagathbandhan.

The Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, has gone further. Its manifesto, ‘Tejashwi Ka Pran’, begins with “ek parivar, ek naukri” (one permanent government job to every household) within 20 months of forming the government. It also promises 1.25 crore jobs in next five years, along with monthly allowances of Rs 2,000 for unemployed graduates and Rs 3,000 for jobless postgraduates.

The RJD leader, who has been declared as the chief ministerial candidate by his grand alliance, has built his campaign on the promise that every young person deserves work and dignity, not only handouts.

The opposition has added that all contractual and outsourced workers will be regularised. It will also waive fees for competitive examination forms, pay for travel to examination centres and act against paper leaks.

Both sides recognise that unemployment is Bihar’s most urgent concern. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s government has improved infrastructure, but many say it has not created enough work. They recall paper leaks in 2024 and police lathi charges on protesting students. The ruling alliance knows this anger runs deep and has left a mark on public mood.

The youth form the heartbeat of Bihar’s electorate. According to Election Commission data, 3.93 crore voters (around 53 percent of the total) are under 40. Among them are 14 lakh first-time voters aged 18 or 19. Their turnout could decide several close contests. They are not swayed easily by caste slogans anymore. They want stability, respect and a permanent and dignified income.

However, in villages, surnames still define alliances and caste mathematics decides where the votes will go.

Who Benefits From Caste Maths?

Behind the manifestos, caste arithmetic remains central. The NDA is depending on Nitish Kumar’s traditional Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) base and the support of dominant upper castes like Brahmins, Rajputs and Bhumihars. But this balance has seemingly shifted a bit.

Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahni, who belongs to the Mallah (fishermen) community, was with the NDA in 2020. This time, he has joined the Mahagathbandhan and has been promised the deputy chief ninister’s post. His community makes up 2.6 percent of Bihar’s population.

His return to the Mahagathbandhan has appears to have drawn a chunk of his community, once loyal to the NDA, back towards the opposition bloc.

I.P. Gupta’s Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) has also joined the opposition alliance. Gupta claims to represent the Tatma and Tanti communities, which are spread across 35 of Bihar’s 38 districts, with about 80 lakh members. He says his group has between 10,000 and 50,000 voters in 150 assembly segments.

In 2020, both communities supported the NDA. Their shift this time has further tilted the local math. The combined reach of both groups could upset established equations and cost the ruling alliance an estimated 7.75 percent of the vote share.

The NDA, on the other hand, has Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which commands around 5.5 percent of votes. But analysts say this addition may not fully offset the losses caused by Sahni and Gupta’s defections.

Other political forces have also changed the picture. Upendra Kushwaha has joined the NDA. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which had hurt the opposition in 2020, has apparently lost its earlier influence.

Caste also shadows the candidate lists. The RJD is contesting 143 seats, giving 52 of its 104 general category seats to Yadavs (whose population account for 14.26 percent), 18 to Muslims (17.70 percent of state’s population) and 20 to Scheduled Castes (who together make up 19.65 percent).

The NDA’s candidates include 86 from upper castes, who together form just over 10 percent of the state’s population. The BJP has not fielded any Muslim candidates.

Bihar has 98 Extremely Backward Castes among its 214 total castes, which constitute 36 percent of the state’s population. None of these 98 groups have any representative contesting from a major party this time. Their total population is over 1.76 crore, and their absence from the lists could influence many constituencies.

The role of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is uncertain. It has fielded 236 candidates and earlier drew attention with a two-year statewide campaign. But as polling began, its visibility has apparently declined. Many believe it will take votes mainly from the NDA’s urban and dominant caste supporters.

Migration is another factor. Many workers who returned for the Chhath festival are now heading back to their jobs outside Bihar. Train bookings show long-distance trains full. Their absence may hurt the NDA, which had benefited from migrant workers’ support during the COVID-19 election of 2020. That year, the NDA’s total vote share was 37.26 percent against the Mahagathbandhan’s 37.23 percent, a difference of only 12,700 votes.

Women - A Key Vote Bank

If caste defines the roots, women define the branches of Bihar’s political tree. After youth, they are the other major focus. They make up nearly half of the electorate (3.5 crore or 47 percent to be precise). Their turnout often surpasses men.

In previous elections, women’s turnout has been higher than men’s. In 2020, 59.69 percent of women voted, compared to 54.45 percent of men.

For decades, Nitish has worked for years to build a loyal base among women through schemes for education, bicycles, jobs and prohibition. This time, his alliance has strengthened its pitch with the idea of “Lakhpati Didis” (women earning Rs 1 lakh a year through small enterprises, backed by loans up to Rs 20 lakh). Rs 10,000 has already been transferred to the bank accounts of 1.21 crore women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana.

The Mahagathbandhan has tried to counter this with its “Mai Bahin Maan Yojana”, which offers Rs 2,500 per month, or up to Rs 30,000 a year, for five years. It has also promised free bus travel, land rights in women’s names, regularisation of Jeevika workers and interest-free loans.This act of control stays in memory longer than any slogan.

Beneath tall promises in manifestos, there is fatigue. Voters have heard many of these pledges before. Still, cash in the account or a job letter in hand changes how families vote.

Beyond caste and gender, the campaign has its own undercurrents. Nitish’s visible frailty, whispers about leadership within the NDA and the BJP’s cautious distance have created unease among loyal supporters.

Meanwhile, Tejashwi’s rallies draw energy from the young and the unemployed, who see in him a reflection of their frustrations.

The Final Picture

Both alliances have offered social welfare promises like free electricity, health insurance, pensions and support for farmers. The NDA talks of industrial growth, while the Mahagathbandhan promises Minimum Support Price guarantees for crops.

Nitish says his roadmap will place Bihar among India’s top 10 developed states in five years. Opposition leaders say Bihar has fallen behind by two decades and that their plan reflects people’s real aspirations.

As the state goes to first phase of elections on Thursday, Bihar’s politics rests on two foundations: caste and livelihood. Every alliance has tried to balance both.

Discussions in the state now circle around two questions: will caste loyalties outweigh the hunger for jobs? And will campaign promises convert into trust at the ballot box? No has certain answers to the questions. What is clear is that Bihar stands at a crossroad between the politics of lineage and the politics of livelihood.