India Faces A 43% Surge In Extreme Rainfall: Climate Crisis To Bring Hotter, Wetter Future By 2030

A new study warns that India could see a 43% spike in extreme rainfall and intensified heatwaves by 2030, driven by climate change and environmental degradation.

Pic Credit: ANI

India is staring down a stormy future, quite literally. A new study jointly released by IPE Global and Esri India has revealed that climate change is set to worsen weather extremes in the country significantly. By 2030, the frequency of extreme rainfall events could skyrocket by up to 43% over current levels, driven by both global climate shifts and hyper-local factors like rapid urbanisation, deforestation, and land-use changes.

The study paints a stark picture: India is already grappling with a surge in extreme heat and erratic rainfall, but this is just the beginning. As global temperatures rise, Indian cities and rural districts will face hotter days and wetter months, with devastating consequences for agriculture, infrastructure, public health, and the economy.

15-Fold Rise in Heatwaves Since 1993

Between 1993 and 2024, India has witnessed a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days, particularly during the pre-monsoon (March-May) and monsoon (June-September) periods. But the last decade has been even more alarming, with a 19-fold increase in these scorching events.

By 2030, major cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Patna, Surat, Thane, and Bhubaneswar are projected to experience twice as many heatwave days as they do now.

8 Out of 10 Districts to Face Extreme Rains

Perhaps even more concerning is the projection that 80% of Indian districts will face multiple instances of erratic and intense rainfall by the end of this decade. Coastal areas, already prone to flooding, are expected to be hit the hardest. Regions on both the eastern and western coasts are increasingly reporting unpredictable rain events, a trend that is accelerating.

This sharp uptick in rainfall intensity is being attributed not just to global warming but also to localised microclimatic disruptions. Key contributors include rampant deforestation, shrinking mangrove belts, urban sprawl, and the disappearance of wetlands.

“Climate Change Is Already Here”

According to Abinash Mohanty, Head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, the findings are a wake-up call.

“The study and its stark findings suggest how climate change has exposed India to extreme heat and rainfall, and the situation is going to be grimmer and harsher by 2030, with the majority of urban centers impacted the most.”

Mohanty also raised alarms about El Niño and La Niña patterns, which are gaining unprecedented momentum and further intensifying the frequency and scale of weather disasters like floods, cyclones, and storm surges.

A Call for Urgent Action

To confront this looming crisis, the study urges a paradigm shift in climate adaptation strategies. Recommendations include:

1. Hyper-granular climate risk assessments

2. Creation of Climate Risk Observatories at local levels

3. Appointment of heat-risk champions within every district disaster management team

These proactive steps, the study argues, are vital to shield India’s vulnerable sectors, especially agriculture, industry, and infrastructure, from the fallout of climate instability.

Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, emphasised that climate leadership will depend on decisive action:

“Only then can India truly emerge as the climate solutions capital of the world.”