Political puzzle: Why Kerala remains a tough case to crack for BJP and NDA? An analysis

Kerala election 2026: While the graph of the BJP in Kerala has seen a spike, the numbers are not enough to justify an electoral win at the assembly level. The relevance of this issue lies not merely in electoral mathematics but in what Kerala represents politically.

Kerala election 2026: Kerala has long remained a significant part of India’s electoral map. The state has also been a tough case for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even as the party consolidates power across large parts of the country. Despite sustained efforts and high-profile efforts, the saffron party has not yet seen any symbolic gains in the political landscape of the state. Kerala’s unique social composition, entrenched political culture, and various other factors continue to limit the party’s prospects.

The relevance of this issue lies not merely in electoral mathematics but in what Kerala represents politically. As India’s most politically conscious and literate state, Kerala could be described as a giant player in the political battleground. Understanding why the BJP has not yet cracked the case of Kerala helps explain the limits of national narratives when confronted with a different perspective.

Meanwhile, with politics largely structured around a bipolar contest between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), space for a third force remains limited and thus makes it interesting to observe. 

Add Zee News as a Preferred Source

Dr. R Girish Kumar, Professor of Politics at Kerala University, points to the state’s social composition as a critical factor. Nearly half of Kerala’s population belongs to minority communities, with Muslims and Christians accounting for a large part. 

“This demographic reality fundamentally shapes electoral outcomes,” he explained. 

According to him, on the other side, a large section of the Hindu population has historically aligned with the CPI(M), leaving the BJP with a limited social base. The dominance of the Left and the Congress has also institutionalised a political culture where power alternates between two well-organised coalitions. 

Dr. Kumar said that the BJP’s dependence on consolidating Hindu votes faces structural limits because the CPI(M) already commands significant Hindu support. 

Recent attempts by Left leaders to woo Hindu voters by sharpening rhetoric against minorities, he noted, may actually consolidate Muslim and Christian voters behind the Congress, strengthening the UDF rather than weakening it.

Also Check- Bengal election 2026: Factors that could hurt CM Mamata Banerjee's TMC | Analysis 

What is the role of Centre-state relations? 

Centre-state relations further complicate the BJP’s position. Dr. Kumar highlights growing centralisation under the current federal setup as a major political issue in Kerala. 

The restructuring of fiscal federalism, particularly after the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), has reduced the taxation powers of states, fueling resentment across party lines.

Secularism remains another defining feature of Kerala’s political fabric. Dr. Kumar emphasised that aggressive attempts to polarise voters along religious lines have limited appeal in a state where secular values are deeply internalised, especially among educated and politically aware sections of society. 

Is Congress confident for Kerala elections? 

Congress leader and Lok Sabha MP K.C. Venugopal, in a post on X (formerly Twitter) noted that the NDA failed to secure even a single District or Block Panchayat and remains confined to just two municipalities, projecting one corporation as a “breakthrough.” 

"The BJP’s media spin projecting a ‘surge' in Kerala Local Body Elections is laughable," he said. 

"In the final results, NDA has 0 District Panchayats, 0 Block Panchayats, remains stuck at 2 Municipalities, and is projecting 1 Corporation as a “breakthrough”, " he added. 

Venugopal further said, "And the story coming from this election is that the people of Kerala quickly get disillusioned with the BJP. ?They projected their 2024 Thrissur Lok Sabha victory also as a win, and today the people have given UDF a thumping victory in the Corporation. They also lost 5% vote share from their 2024 Lok Sabha Elections performance."

He informed that the UDF won 4 of 6 Corporations (+3), stands tall with 7 of 14 District Panchayats (+4), dominates 54 of 86 Municipalities (+12), surges to 79 Block Panchayats (+39), and has established a strong grip over rural Kerala with 505 Grama Panchayats (+164).

BJP vote share in Kerala in previous elections 

While the graph of the BJP in Kerala has seen a spike, the numbers are not enough to justify an electoral win at the assembly level. 

Lok Sabha elections 2024: The Congress-led UDF had registered a clean sweep and clinched a majority of 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in the 2024 General Elections. Notably, the saffron party opened its Lok Sabha account in Kerala with Suresh Gopi’s win in Thrissur. NDA spearheaded by the BJP managed to grow its vote share from 15.64% in 2019 to 19.23% in 2024. The BJP’s vote share increased from 13 per cent to 16.68 per cent in 2024.

Kerala Assembly election 2021: The ruling Left got a thumping victory in the polls, while the BJP lost the only seat it had won in the 2016 state election. Data released by the Election Commission of India indicates that the NDA’s vote share in the 2021 state assembly elections dropped back to levels seen before 2016. The BJP secured 2,354,468 votes, accounting for 11.3% of the total votes across the 115 constituencies where it contested independently. This represents a marginal increase of 0.77 percentage points compared to the party’s 10.53% vote share in the 2016 assembly elections. Despite this slight rise for the BJP, the NDA as a whole experienced a decline of 1.95 percentage points in its overall vote share in the 2021 polls.

Do small victories matter?

For the BJP, these small and symbolic victories in Kerala, like the Thiruvananthapuram municipal win, may offer visibility, but whether they will yield any transformative results for the party cannot be said. However, any surge of around 3-4 per cent in the BJP’s vote share from the 2024-level may help the party re-enter the Kerala assembly for sure.

As things stand, the UDF and the LDF remain the principal power brokers in Kerala’s electoral politics.