What Went Wrong With Exit Polls? Axis My India’s Chief Weighs In On The Controversy

Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India attributes Lok Sabha exit poll errors to poor resource deployment in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, not faulty methodology.

When the results of the Lok Sabha elections sharply contradicted predictions made by several exit polls, criticism surged, with some even calling for a ban on exit polls altogether. Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta stood by the accuracy of exit polls and offered an explanation behind the predictions going off the mark. He pointed out that a misjudgement in resource allocation skewed the predictions. 

The 55-year-old pollster became the focus of controversy when the opposition accused him of intentionally showing a clean sweep for the BJP to influence the stock market. Following the announcement of the exit polls, the market surged to a record high but crashed on the day of counting. 

In an interview with news agency PTI, Gupta said that underestimating Uttar Pradesh during the last three phases of the elections was an expensive error. This miscalculation happened because they redirected their top resources from the crucial Hindi-heartland state to Odisha, based on errors made in earlier polls.

The Predictions Of Lok Sabha Results 2024 

Axis My India exit poll forecasted the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would secure between 361 and 400 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. It also predicted the party establishing victory on 67 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.  

However, the actual results announced on June 4 revealed the BJP winning only 240 seats, falling short of the majority, with Uttar Pradesh being the biggest disappointment for the party as it won just 33 seats. 

No Error In Methodology 

It is not the methodology that contributed to the off the chart predictions but rather with how resources were deployed in key states, said the chief of Axis My India exit poll. 

"We have a foolproof methodology used for predicting elections. It was not our method which went wrong. I made a mistake in deployment of my senior resources and took crucial states like Uttar Pradesh lightly,” Gupta told PTI. 

He highlighted, “The route to power in Delhi (Centre) is through UP.”  

Claiming that the three states that added to the wrong predictions were UP, West Bengal and Maharashtra, he said, we were proved wrong. 

Gupta said that 41 out of 80 seats were contested in the fifth, sixth, and seventh phases. During the same period, elections in Haryana and Delhi were held simultaneously, along with Punjab and Himachal Pradesh in the seventh phase. 

He asserted that although the NDA had formed the government, there was a huge gap between the number of seats the exit polls predicted and the actual number of seats the BJP gained.  

Gupta explained the resource deployment strategy that the company followed, he said that 31 resources as observers, trainers, or coaches were overlooking various states but ignored Uttar Pradesh. He said that some professionals were transferred from UP to West Bengal, but the poll violence affected the interview rate. 

(Based on inputs from PTI)