Ankara: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan`s hopes of assuming greater powers suffered a major setback on Sunday when the ruling AK Party he founded failed to win an outright majority in a parliamentary election for the first time.
The AKP now faces what could be weeks of difficult coalition negotiations with reluctant opposition parties as it tries to form a stable government, or could seek to go it alone as a minority government ahead of an early election.
Following are some possible scenarios:
1 - AKP-NATIONALIST COALITION
If it is to enter into a coalition, the AKP`s most likely junior partner is the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with which it shares a certain degree of conservative and nationalist ideology.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, who has spoken out against Erdogan`s ambitions to create a presidential system in Turkey, is likely to try to extract significant concessions in such an arrangement, including curbs on Erdogan`s powers.
He warned on Sunday, as the election results came in, that Erdogan should "remain within his constitutional limits" or consider resigning. He also said Turkey should hold a new election if the AKP is unable to agree a coalition with parliament`s two other opposition parties.
An AKP-MHP coalition could deal a blow to a peace process with Kurdish militants. MHP supporters oppose negotiations with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group.
AKP and MHP combined would nonetheless have more than 330 of parliament`s 550 seats, enough to take the country to a referendum on a new constitution.
2 - BROAD OPPOSITION COALITION
If Prime Minister and AKP leader Ahmet Davutoglu is unable to form a stable government, tradition in Turkey dictates that Erdogan could ask the next biggest party in parliament - the secularist Republican People`s Party (CHP) - to try to do so.
However, there is no constitutional requirement for this, and it is far from certain that Erdogan, who has built a political career on opposition to the CHP, would go this route.
The CHP won around 132 seats, according to initial results.
It could team up in a coalition with the MHP and the pro-Kurdish People`s Democratic Party (HDP), which made it across the 10 percent threshold and entered parliament for the first time in Sunday`s vote.
While it is unlikely that the MHP and HDP could set aside stark differences, Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc challenged the three opposition parties to try to form a coalition, saying the AKP was ready to step into the void if they failed.
3 - AKP MINORITY GOVERNMENT
The AKP could seek to form a minority government, with the support of enough opposition deputies for it to win a confidence vote in parliament.
The MHP is the most likely to support this move, but would again seek to extract concessions such as a guarantee of an early election. Analysts see little interest for the CHP or HDP in supporting such a move.
4 - ERDOGAN CALLS EARLY ELECTION
If no working coalition can be formed, or a minority government fails to win a confidence vote within 45 days, the constitution gives Erdogan the authority to call an early parliamentary election.
That election would have to be held 90 days later.
