Low-risk gamble? Pakistan's role in US-Iran peace talks decoded

A surprise venue, a controversial mediator, and a diplomatic slip, what's really behind the US-Iran talks in Islamabad?

Representative image. (Photo: AI generated)

Formal ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to begin in Islamabad within 48 hours, with Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir occupying the centre chair as mediator, a choice that has stunned diplomatic observers and triggered sharp debate across the region.

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The decision by President Donald Trump to route US-Iran peace talks through Pakistan has raised eyebrows in foreign policy circles. Munir is currently managing an active insurgency by Baloch separatists, facing mounting casualties from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks on Pakistani soldiers, and dealing with an increasingly hostile Afghanistan on his western border.

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Critics point out that after mediation attempts through Oman and Qatar produced no results, Trump turned to a country struggling to contain conflicts within its own borders.

The situation became more awkward when Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif posted a ceasefire message on X on April 8 and accidentally revealed it had been ghostwritten. The first version of the post, shared at 12:46 am, began with the words: "Draft, Pakistan PM Message on X." A corrected version appeared one minute later with the opening line removed. The second post carried the words "LAST EDITED" in the timestamp area.

The slip exposed that Sharif had posted a message drafted by someone else, widely believed to be Trump's team, word-for-word, including a reference to himself as "Pakistan's Prime Minister" rather than "I," a phrasing no leader's own staff would use for their own principal.

The blunder fueled the central question now being asked in diplomatic circles: if Pakistan's Prime Minister cannot craft an independent social media post, can he broker a deal between two of the world's most adversarial powers?

Trump's calculus, analysts suggest, may be deliberately low-risk. If talks succeed, Washington claims credit for engineering the deal. If they collapse, the blame lands squarely on Islamabad.

In India, the development sparked political sparring. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh posted a 309-word statement suggesting Pakistan had scored a diplomatic edge over New Delhi. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi questioned why India did not step in as a mediator.

Indian government officials have not responded publicly. New Delhi's official stance has been to stay out of the US-Iran conflict entirely, a position that kept Indian oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz even during active hostilities.

The Islamabad talks are scheduled for April 10. All eyes will be on whether Munir can deliver what Oman and Qatar could not.