Ahead Of 2024 Polls, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar Intensifies Effort To Defy Modi Magic

Ahead of the 2024 elections, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has intensified his efforts to alienate voters from the BJP and defy the Modi magic using caste census and mahadalit cards. Kumar’s party the Janata Dal (United) is gearing up for the upcoming elections with a strategic plan to counter the election campaign of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The JDU leaders have already begun a state-wide tour as part of these preparations. In the coming month, JDU is set to organize a key program in Patna, which holds immense importance for the upcoming elections. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been working on a new political equation for Bihar for quite some time now and he is giving final shape to his efforts.

While the caste, not the development, has been an important factor in Bihar politics, Kumar is now planning to outsmart the BJP using the Mahadalit card, a section which is widely considered as politically leaderless.  Now, Nitish Kumar has concentrated his efforts on bringing them into the fold of the JDU. The party’s latest campaign ‘Bhim Samvad’ is scheduled to take place next month, on November 26th, following a previous plan to hold it on November 5th. The event was postponed due to the festival including Diwali on November 12th and Chhath Puja, celebrated between November 17th and 20th. These festivals typically witness a significant return of Bihari people living in other states back to their homes, particularly during Chhath when migrant Biharis return in large numbers. By scheduling the program shortly after Chhath, JDU aims to establish a connection with those who temporarily reside outside the state for employment or other reasons.

The JDU is trying to mobilize the Mahadalits through ‘Bhim Samvad’ and the party’s objective is to tap into the substantial voter base of around 20 percent of Mahadalits. Mahadalits can become a significant political force in Bihar if they vote unitedly. A recent caste survey conducted by the state government reveals that the Scheduled Castes constitute 19.65 percent of the state's population, making them the largest demographic group after the Extremely Backward Class and Backward Class.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has brushed aside the caste census saying that poor people should have the first rights over the country’s resources as they form the biggest chunk of the population, the opposition parties are trying to woo the voters by showing the lollipop of the caste census. The issue gained momentum shortly after Bihar became the first state to hold a caste census.

In terms of electoral influence, the combination of Mahadalit castes and Lalu Yadav's renowned MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation could significantly impact the election results. According to the survey, Yadavs in Bihar make up 14.27 percent of the population, and Muslims account for 17.70 percent. When combined, these two groups constitute approximately 32 percent of the population. When Mahadalits are added to this equation, the total figure rises to 42 percent.

Kumar has entrusted Minister Ashok Choudhary with leading this campaign to connect Mahadalits with the party. Choudhary is known for his reach among the class, having previously managed the Bihar unit of the Congress. In addition to Ashok Choudhary, two other ministers have been appointed to ensure the success of ‘Bhim Sansad’. Prohibition and Excise Minister Sunil Kumar has been given charge of Siwan and Gopalganj while SC/ST Welfare Minister Ratnesh Sada will oversee Saharsa, Madhepura, Purnia, and Katihar regions.

Bihar has 40 parliamentary seats and the BJP-JDU-LJP had won 39 of them in 2019 when Nitish Kumar was with the NDA. Now, since Kumar has joined hands with the RJD and the Congress, the Mahagathnbandhan is looking to restrict the BJP to as minimum seats as possible.