Donald Trump as US president: What it could mean for India and the world

Donald Trump is all set to take office as the 45th President of the United States and Barack Obama wishes to tell the world, and more so his people, that things “will be OK”.

The initial shock-result has sunk in, but the despair that many felt is yet to alleviate. For the world, Trump at the Oval office could be a mixed bag.

Old foe Russia seems to be smirking. There were reports that Moscow hacked Democratic Party emails during the election campaign, a fact admitted albeit reluctantly by the real estate tycoon. Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin is a friend - he would be indeed if Russia helped him win.

In all likelihood Uncle Sam, with Trump at the helm, could have the warmest relations with Kremlin since World War.

Closer home, China would be bracing itself for some bouts with the US in the international arena. The good news for them is that Trump has declared that he does not want his country to meddle too much in global affairs. This is positive move for China which would rather not have US naval ships in South China sea. On the other hand, America under the Republican head could end its ‘One China Policy’ and independently engage with Taiwan, for example. This would prick China to no end, just as it would if trade barriers were installed to block Chinese goods from entering US markets or if the issue of currency manipulation is raised seriously.

More particularly, China will be wary about Trump pumping India up as a counterweight to it in Asia. Expectedly, it will only further cosy up to Pakistan to keep it as a thorn in India’s side.

Pakistan itself may find itself further isolated with US under the Republican President. Trump has been vociferous in his attack on Islamic terror including that which is manufactured in our neighbourhood.

Pakistan’s only hope has been some suggestions from Trump about contributing to bring peace to South Asia. The Islamic Republic may have seen it as a positive signal on a possible active intervention in Kashmir. But the clarifications issued soon after look like US will recoil to its earlier position of this being a bilateral affair between India and Pakistan.

Whether US will come down harder on Pakistan to crack down on terror or it will cut some of its credit lines is difficult to say.

One country that Donald Trump has been positive about is India. He says “he loves Hindu” and admires Narendra Modi. Trump has visited India as businessman and has two projects based out of here. As President, he could offer India a bilateral trade agreement that could be a win-win for both, but the bone of contention will be H1B visas for India’s tech guys wishing to work in the United States.

How “true a friend” he turns out to be for India is a big question mark still, but recent history shows that though Republicans are colder towards India than Democrats, they actually end up contributing more towards our interests compared to Democrats who always claim to be friends.

Also in our neighbourhood, Iran could be on the radar of the new foreign policy that will be chalked out in Washington. Donald Trump has openly said that he finds the recent historic US-Iran nuclear accord “one of the worst deals” ever and could embark on the brazen path of re-opening negotiations. This would hurt peace and stability in the region which has been reached after arduous hours of sweat and toil.

In such a scenario, how Trump will tackle North Korea would also be an interesting watch.

The most affected area of influence perhaps would be global free trade. The new US President is no fan of multilateral trade pacts and would rather engage with countries one-on-one. He has already started with UK, outside of European Union.

The new President is also threatening to get rid of many agreements that are in force in the whole of North America including Canada and Mexico. He may not end up building a wall on the country’s southern border with Mexico, but could raise a lot of intangible hindrances of businesses and people’s movement which could hurt the Mexican economy and also cause job losses.

Worse still, Trump may come good on his vow to scrap the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and regulations agreed upon by Barack Obama to protect the environment. Considering the vast impact this could have, this may turn out to be one of the most dismal hallmarks of Trump’s presidency.

While the US Presidential office is the most powerful post in the world, it is also the toughest job possible.

Donald Trump needs to appreciate the fact that running the affairs of a country and influencing lives of millions around the world is a very different ball game from building a business and evading big bucks in tax.

It would do him a world of good to ponder-and-ply than making off thae cuff comments that he has become so infamous for.

From chauvinistic remarks on women to calling US intelligence agencies Nazi Germany, Trump needs to mend his practiced way of putting his foot in his mouth.

A sane piece of advice given by the outgoing CIA director John Brennan more or less nails what Donald Trump needs to do:

"I think he has to be mindful that he does not have a full appreciation and understanding of what the implications are of going down that road."

Keeping silent first and watching and learning on the way could be key.

L'espoir fait vivre!