In the high-stake assembly elections in this tiny hill state of Uttarakhand an upbeat BJP – the state’s main opposition party – is pitted against the incumbent Harish Rawat-led Congress party, which is marred by allegations of corruption, dissension and infighting. 


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For the 70-seat Uttarakhand Assembly, it will be a direct fight between Congress and BJP. However, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati – the third political player - has some influence in Terai regions and could dent the prospects of candidates from the other two parties.


Last year, when Chief Minister Harish Rawat had to seek a trust vote after a rebellion in his party, the last-minute support of the BSP's three legislators had saved the Congress government, highlighting that Mayawati's support base in Uttarakhand may be small, but she can be a kingmaker.


Till a few months back, the ruling Congress had a clear advantage over BJP after Rawat managed to scuttle BJP’s move to clamp President’s Rule in the state by winning the floor test, with BSP’s backing and gained public sympathy. However, Congress’ prospects seem to be on a downward spiral since then. Infighting and defection by some of its top leaders to the saffron camp have further dampened its electoral prospects here. 


The BJP, which has entrusted the task of winning Uttarakhand to its Union Ministers JP Nadda and Dharmendra Pradhan, appears to be better organised than Congress here. 


The party’s top leaders have been highlighting “political corruption” in the state at poll meetings and also showing the sting video of Rawat allegedly offering money to legislators to save his government. However, the BJP has its own share of problems in Uttrakhand.


The 'fauji' factor


About 40 percent of the state’s population comprises serving and retired soldiers, officers and their families. The Army also raises two of its most important regiments - Garhwal and Kumaon - from the state. Nearly two-lakh ex-servicemen reside in Uttarakhand and more than 80,000 people currently serve in the armed forces. 


There are nearly 40,000 widows of the defence personnel in the state. All this makes the 'fauji’ factor extremely important in Uttarakhand. The BJP has largely tweaked the 'fauji’ factor in its favour ever since the party made BC Khanduri - a retired Major General - the Chief Minister of the state. 


Servicemen also play an important role in determining the winners and losers in relatively smaller assembly constituencies here. It is possibly the 'fauji’ factor which has prompted the BJP to pick General Bipin Rawat as the Chief of the Indian Army by ignoring the well-established norms of seniority in the force. 


General Rawat, who superseded two of his seniors, comes from the Pauri-Garhwal region and is also the first officer from Uttarakhand to have risen to the rank of an Army Chief. In an attempt to woo voters after the “surgical strikes” in PoK last year, the party had launched a massive campaign titled “BJP ka abhiyan-Sainik ka samman” and felicitated armymen, ex-servicemen and their families across the state.


While the BJP has been trying to benefit from the 'fauji’ factor, the Congress has spared no opportunity in convincing people how the Centre cheated the ex-servicemen and their families by not implementing the OROP scheme.


No CM face


The lack of a credible CM face is yet another issue haunting the BJP in Uttarakhand. The party is still undecided as to whom it could project as its CM candidate – a factor which may hurt the saffron party electorally as it is pitted against a wily opponent like Harish Rawat, who is the undisputed CM face of the Congress.


The indecision in BJP stems from the fact that it has four ex-CMs who are probable frontrunners, but due to certain plus and minus factors with all of them, a consensus has not been reached. 


While BC Khanduri – former chief minister - has a clean image, he is over 82. Bhagat Singh Koshyari, another BJP stalwart here, is touching 75. Ramesh Pokhriyal 'Nishank' - the youngest of the lot - faces corruption charges. Vijay Bahuguna - the new entrant to the BJP from Congress - is seen as an outsider in the BJP camp. 


Congress rebels 


Fielding all Congress rebels from seats of their choice is likely to cause heartburn for many old hands of the saffron party who have worked hard in their respective constituencies in anticipation of getting a ticket to contest polls. Denial of a ticket to the loyal cadres may cause them to either enter the fray as independents or secretly work to ensure the defeat of party’s official nominees.


While the induction of 10 influential Congress leaders into the party fold was once seen as a big boost for the BJP, it is now a cause of concern for the saffron party as it finalises candidates for the February 15 Assembly elections. 


Roorkee, Kedarnath, Lansdowne and Narendra Nagar are among half-a-dozen seats where candidate selection would be a difficult task for BJP. Among “rebels”, Pradeep Batra will be contesting from Roorkee, Kunwar Pranav Singh Champion from Khanpur, Subodh Uniyal from Narendranagar, Rekha Arya from Someshwar (SC), Shailendra Mohan Singhal from Jaspur, Umesh Sharma (Kau) from Raipur and Shaila Rani Rawat from Kedarnath. However, former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna is not contesting the elections this time. BJP has fielded his son Saurabh from the Sitarganj seat. Another former Congress stalwart Harak Singh Rawat, who had led the rebellion against Harish Rawat last year, would be contesting from the Kotdwar seat instead of Rudraprayag from where he won the last time.


Meanwhile, senior leader Satpal Maharaj, who left the Congress before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls to join the BJP, would be contesting from the Chaubattakhal seat. Former Congress leader and its strong Dalit face Yashpal Arya and his son would now be contesting as BJP candidates from the Bajpur (SC) and the Nainital (SC) seats, respectively.


Dalit card 


The BJP's strategy to wrest the hill state back from the Congress includes a big outreach to the Dalit community, which constitutes about 18.8 percent of the total voters here. The party has decided to look beyond its traditional ‘Thakur-Brahmin’ support base to woo the Dalit vote, which can influence the result in more than 20 constituencies. This can make all the difference in Uttarakhan where Congress won 32 and the BJP wrested 31 seats in a photo-finish last time. There was a marginal difference in the vote share of the two parties - the Congress had 33.79 per cent and the BJP 33.13 per cent. 


In view of this factor, the BJP has poached several Dalit and OBC leaders from the ruling Congress, among them is a minister in the Harish Rawat government, Yashpal Arya. Arya - a prominent Dalit leader – joined the BJP just days ahead of polls along with his son Sanjiv, and both have been fielded by the party in the assembly elections. Recently, Santosh Kashyap, the chairman of the State Council for Backward Classes, Shekhar Kashyap, State OBC Cell chairman, along with three other senior Congress leaders, had joined the BJP.