In Punjab it was always a straightforward affair. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress took turns to capture power in the state which has made panthic politics, waiver of farmer loans and free power a big issue. But things did change somewhere in the course of the years. Last time, the Akali-BJP combine sprang a surprise victory putting the Badal family back in the saddle for a second consecutive term. And the agenda was development.


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A lot of water has flown down Beas since then. The incumbency factor has set in a deeper way than the past, especially as SAD has been in power for nearly a decade. And rather than development, there has been cronyism, nepotism and only an increased problem of alcohol and drugs.


Importantly, there is a third player – the Aam Admi Party (AAP). You could nearly sense Arvind Kejriwal trying to project himself as a chief ministerial candidate, but Manish Sisodia has clarified that only a Punjabi will be Punjab’s chief minister. The AAP candidate from Lambi Jarnail Singh seems to have been tickled by the idea and said a turban wearing CM from AAP was on the anvil. Wink wink, that meant himself. Except that Bhagwant Mann also wears a turban and seems to be drawing huge crowds, for the sake of curiosity if nothing else.


AAP has reasons to be hopeful. It had won four of the 13 seats it contested during the General Elections of 2014. Statistics showed that within those four seats, Aam Admi candidates polled a majority in 26 assembly elections which was very substantial.


What the Congress would be hoping for this time would be that people of Punjab would like to go for a formulation that’s tried and tested. That is where they have an advantage over AAP which does not have a historical background or advantage in the state. Adding to this, the fact that the people are truly fed up with SAD style of politics, Amarinder would be hoping to be the chief minister for that one last time before he possibly retires.


Even though he is the senior most leader in the party, Navjot Singh Sidhu’s joining the Congress - widely covered as “ghar wapsi” - had led to speculations that the cricketer turned politician may be poised to be the CM candidate. It was only later that Rahul Gandhi quashed these rumours. Nevertheless, Sidhu has converted himself into a strong player in Punjab, especially in the Amritsar region and had led to Arun Jaitley’s loss in general elections because he played truant. Sidhu and Amarinder together can, therefore, carry Congress home, the only party spoiler may be how AAP performs. Worst case scenario for Punjab and the people will be if a hung assembly gets thrown up.


Shiromani Akali Dal seems certain that it is unlikely to be lucky a third time in a row. The BJP may not be able to bolster it as the Modi effect does not have the same resonance that it had five years back. Plus, it has been plagued with events that can be best described as atrocious or bizarre.


Shockingly enough, a dozen Akali leaders were caught in the company of liquor baron Shiv Lal Doda sitting comfortably in Fazilka jail! Without the complicity of the entire administration, such a meeting would not have been possible and this blatant misuse of power and twisting of rules for convenience of narrow political interests has got the goat of the common man.


The Akalis are now in an overdrive in promising doles, and there are rumours, that these could be in the form of gold. Moreover, in this election alone, 1 lakh bottles of liquor meant for distribution have been seized by electoral officials. But freebies are unlikely to bring them any sympathy considering what the symbolism of the Akalis holding court with a liquor baron meant.


Both liquor and drug menace have ruined the lives of the youth of the region. The problem is only amplified because Punjab is a border state and Pakistan has been doing its best to keep it drugged and ill. There are also reports that low intensity liquid heroin is the new concoction that is being pumped in. This spells disaster in a state where 16% of the population is supposed to be on drugs of which 90% consume heroin. Since the announcement of polls, drugs worth Rs 2 crore have been recovered, and on the last day of campaigning, synthetic drugs worth Rs 38 lakh apprehended.


When the people of the state are combatting such a serious issue affecting the lives of their family and friends, then those political powers that are seen in tango with offenders only draw the dagger deeper into their hearts.


People also feel SAD has made politics a family business with Parkash Singh Badal, son Sukhbir, daughter-in-law Harsimrat, son-in-law Adesh Partap Kairon and daughter in law’s brother Bikramjit Majithia all in positions of power. The stupendous wealth held by this first family of Punjab is also an open secret with reports of wide financial holdings in India and abroad.


For Akalis, as for the rest, the Malwa region which accounts for 69 of 117 seats will be critical. The BJP-Akali combine has got a shot in the arm with Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Raheem calling for an open support for them.


But besides the widespread dera culture prevalent in Punjab, the rise of radical sects has been noticeable, especially in view of the flare up two years ago on the issue of desecration of the Guru Granth Sahib. Alarmingly, this pro-Khalistan segment, which was erstwhile isolated seems to be aligning with the Aam Admi Party. A case in point has been the suspected terror blast in Maur that seemed to be targetted at Congress candidate Harminder Singh Jassi.


It would be unfortunate if the people of state, who are fed up of Akali politics, go the hardline way.


Apart from these interesting dynamics, the age-old issues like water, irrigation and electricity will continue to matter. Punjab remains an agrarian state and for it water and power are lifelines to generate incomes.


However, shortage of water in recent years is converting some regions arid and farmers would be looking keenly at contenders for providing solutions. Sadly, Punjab, which is known as the wheat basket of India, has reported second highest cases of debt ridden farmers suicide cases after Maharashtra.


Besides, services for NRI population and better health facilties will be high on the agenda of voters’ demand list.


The election will be held in single phase on February 4.