Stocks may swing sideways, winter session holds the clue

New Delhi: Markets are likely to remain volatile amid derivatives expiry as parliamentary proceedings will largely dictate trend in the holiday-shortened week ahead, experts say.

Inflows by foreign institutional investors and global cues will be other deciding factors.

The winter session of Parliament starts on November 26.

The markets will be closed on November 25 on occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti.

"Going ahead, all attention will be on the winter session of Parliament and whether the government is able to reconcile differences with the Opposition and pass key legislations," said Dipen Shah, Kotak Securities Head of Private Client Group Research.

"A rate hike in the US looks imminent in the next policy meeting of the Fed, but that is largely discounted by markets."

The winter session beginning next week is set to be a stormy affair, with the Opposition buoyed by the Bihar results getting ready to confront the government on a host of issues, which could push back efforts for an early passage of key legislations, including GST.

According to experts, being a truncated trading week with absence of any domestic data point, the market is likely to largely follow its global peers.

"We expect the markets to trade in the negative zone in the coming week. We have advised clients to go short on every bounce till it holds below 7,930," said Vijay Singhania, founder-Director, Trade Smart Online, a leading discount brokerage firm.

Traders slated to roll over positions in the futures and options (F&O) segment could contribute to volatility.

"With November 2015 derivative series expiry coming up next week, we expect the markets to remain volatile as traders roll over positions to December 2015 series," Singhania added.

Ravi Shenoy, AVP-Midcaps Research, Motilal Oswal Securities said: "Institutional flows have been balanced with DIIs' buying balancing out selling by FPIs. Overall, we expect a range-bound market with stock-specific action unless there is positive action in Parliament."

For the week ended November 20, the Sensex added 257.96 points, or 1 percent, and the NSE Nifty 94.30 points, or 1.21 percent -- their best weekly show since October 9.

The 30-share benchmark closed at 25,868.49, up 26.57 points, while the broad-based Nifty settled higher by 13.80 points at 7,856.55 on Friday.