New Delhi, Nov 15: A few surprises, upsets and some predictables. Zee News Opinion Poll says it all. Congress is in a clear lead in Delhi while BJP is leading in Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh present an exciting fight. Delhi

Votes:
INC: 48% in 1998 : 49% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 1
BJP: 34% in 1998 : 36% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 2
Others: 18% in 1998 : 15% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
INC: 49% in 1998: 40% to 48% in 2003
BJP: 15% in 1998: 21% to 29% in 2003
Others: 6% in 1998: 1% to 4% in 2003
Total: 70 : 70 Popularity:
Shiela Dixit: 16% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 38
Madan Lal Khurana: 16% in 1998 : 29% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 13
Sahib Singh Verma: 11% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -5
Sushma Swaraj: 18% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -12
Others: 39% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -12
Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
INC: Leader – 54 ; Party – 49 ; Difference (5)
BJP: Leader – 29 ; Party – 36 ; Difference (-7) Change the Govt
Yes: 36%
No: 64%
Total: 100 Special Factor : Middle Class Vote Share
INC: 41% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing - 13
BJP: 49% in 1998 : 44% in 2003 : Swing - -5
Others: 10% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing - -8
Total: 100 : 100 Impact of Middle Class Swings
Impact of swing in BJP votes
INC:
  • Current:
    • - 44 to 52%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 48 to 56%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 40 to 46


    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -10 to 18%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 8 to 14%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 14 to 22

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -35 to 7%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 2% to 4%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 4% to 8%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 70
  • Plus %
    •  - 70
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 70

    Issues that may not work

    Tandoor vs Development
    Only development as issue: 72%
    Only Tandoor as issue: 4%
    Both the issues: 12%
    Can’t say: 12%
    Total: 100 Rajasthan
    Votes:
    INC: 45% in 1998 : 45% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 0
    BJP: 33% in 1998 : 32% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 9
    Others: 22% in 1998 : 13 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -9
    Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
    INC: 153 in 1998: 107 to 115 in 2003
    BJP: 33 in 1998: 77 to 85 in 2003
    Others: 14 in 1998: 5 to 13 in 2003
    Total: 200 : 200 Popularity:
    Ashok Ghelot: 28% in 1998 : 51% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 23
    Vasundhara Raje: 2% in 1998 : 35% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 33
    Other Congress Leaders: 11% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -9
    Other BJP leaders: 41% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -39
    Others: 18% in 1998 : 10% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -8
    Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
    INC: Leader – 51 ; Party – 45 ; Difference (6)
    BJP: Leader – 35 ; Party – 42 ; Difference (-7) Change the Govt
    Yes: 48%
    No: 52%
    Total: 100 Special Factor : Jat Vote Bank
    INC: 38% in 1998 : 32% in 2003 : Swing - -6
    BJP: 43% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing - 11
    Others: 19% in 1998 : 14% in 2003 : Swing - -5
    Total: 100 : 100 Issue that worked
    Drought relief in per cent
    Govt did well in drought relief: 57%
    Govt performed poorly: 26%
    Can’t say: 17%
    Total: 100% Impact of Congress vote swings
    Impact of to & fro INC swing
    INC:
  • Current:
    • - 107 to 115%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 132 to 140%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 82 to 90%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -77 to 85%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 49 to 57%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 90 to 96%

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -5 to 13%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 7% to 15%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 16% to 24%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 200
  • Plus %
    •  - 200
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 200 Madhya Pradesh


    Votes:
    INC: 41% in 1998 : 39% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -2
    BJP: 39% in 1998 : 42% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 3
    BSP: 6% in 1998 : 11% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 5
    Others: 14% in 1998 : 8 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -6
    Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
    INC: 124 in 1998: 77 to 85 in 2003
    BJP: 83 in 1998: 122 to 138 in 2003
    Others: 23 in 1998: 19 to 27 in 2003
    Total: 200 : 200 Popularity:
    Digvijay Singh: 25% in 1998 : 28% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 3
    Uma Bharati: 2% in 1998 : 35% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 33
    Other Congress Leaders: 16% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -10
    Other BJP leaders: 28% in 1998 : 7% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -21
    Others: 29% in 1998 : 24% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -5 Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
    INC: Leader – 34 ; Party – 39 ; Difference (-5)
    BJP: Leader – 42 ; Party – 42 ; Difference (0) Change the Govt
    Yes: 65%
    No: 35%
    Total: 100

    Impact of Congress Vote Swings
    Impact of to & Fro Swing
    INC:

  • Current:
    • - 77 to 85%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 98 to 106%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 64 to 72%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -122 to 130%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 103 to 111%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 138 to 146%

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -19 to 27%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 17% to 25%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 16% to 24%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 230
  • Plus %
    •  - 230
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 230

    Chhattisgarh

    Votes:
    INC: 41% in 1998 : 38% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
    BJP: 40% in 1998 : 37% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
    NCP: 0 in 1998 : 13% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 13
    Others: 19% in 1998 : 12 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -7
    Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
    INC: 49 in 1998: 40 to 48 in 2003
    BJP: 35 in 1998: 34 to 42 in 2003
    Others: 6 in 1998: 2 to 5 in 2003
    Total: 90 : 0 Popularity:
    Ajit Jogi: 44% in SC+ST+Min : 26% in Genral: Total- 36
    Dilip Singh Judev: 19% in SC+ST+Min: 31% in General: Total - 24
    Vidya Charan Shukla: 18% in SC+ST+Min: 20% in General: Total - 19
    Others: 19% SC+ST+Min: 23% General: Total- 21
    Total: 100 : 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
    INC: Leader – 36 ; Party – 38 ; Difference (-2)
    BJP: Leader – 24 ; Party – 37 ; Difference (-13)
    NCP: Leader – 19 ; Party – 13 ; Difference 6 Change the Govt
    Yes: 61%
    No: 39%
    Total: 100 Special Factor : Impact of NCP
    NCP Votes Composition:
    Coming from INC: 83% (Rural) : 73% (Urban) : 74% Total
    Coming from BJP: 17% (Rural) : 27% (Urban) : 26% Total
    Total: 100 : 100 : 100 Impact of NCP Vote Share
    If NCP votes swing
    INC:

  • Current:
    • - 36 to 46%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 33 to 41%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 43 to 51%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -34 to 42%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 36 to 44%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 30 to 38%

    NCP:
  • Current:
    •  -4 to 9%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 5% to 10%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 3 to 6%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 90
  • Plus %
    •  - 90
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 90

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -2 to 6%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 3% to 7%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 2 to 4% Issue that may not work Hindutva vs Development in %
    Yes: 88% No: 8% Can’t say: 4% Total: 100 Vote for Development
    Satisfied with the development of state
    Delhi: 64% - Yes : 36% - No
    Rajasthan: 61% - Yes : 39% - No
    Chhattisgarh: 57% - Yes : 43% - No
    Madhya Pradesh: 34% - Yes : 66% - No Change the government
    Delhi: 36% - Yes : 64% - No
    Rajasthan: 48% - Yes : 52% - No
    Chhattisgarh: 61% : 39% - No
    Madhya Pradesh: 65% : 35% - No Swings Impacts and possibilities Chhattisgarh

    If NCP votes swing
    INC:
  • Current:
    • - 38 to 46%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 33 to 41%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 43 to 51%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -34 to 42%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 36 to 44%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 30 to 38%

    NCP:
  • Current:
    •  -4 to 9%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 5% to 10%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 3 to 6%

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -2 to 6%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 3% to 7%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 2 to 4%
    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 90
  • Plus %
    •  - 90
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 90 Delhi

    Impact of swing in BJP votes

    INC:
  • Current:
    • - 40 to 48%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 48 to 56%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 40 to 46

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -21 to 29%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 8 to 14%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 14 to 22

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -1 to 4%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 2% to 4%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 4% to 8%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 70
  • Plus %
    •  - 70
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 70 Madhya Pradesh

    Impact of to & Fro Swing
    INC:
  • Current:
    • - 77 to 85%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 98 to 106%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 64 to 72%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -122 to 130%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 103 to 111%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 138 to 146%

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -19 to 27%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 17% to 25%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 16% to 24%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 230
  • Plus %
    •  - 230
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 230
    Rajasthan

    Impact of to & fro INC swing
    INC:
  • Current:
    • - 107 to 115%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 132 to 140%
  • Minus3%:
    •  - 82 to 90%

    BJP:
  • Current:
    •  -77 to 85%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 49 to 57%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 90 to 98%

    Others:
  • Current:
    •  -5 to 13%
  • Plus 3%:
    •  - 7% to 15%
  • Minus 3%:
    •  - 16% to 24%

    Total:
  • Current
    •  - 200
  • Plus %
    •  - 200
  • Minus 3%
    •  - 200