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Zee News - Cvoter Opinion Poll
New Delhi, Nov 15: A few surprises, upsets and some predictables. Zee News Opinion Poll says it all. Congress is in a clear lead in Delhi while BJP is leading in Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh present an exciting fight.
Votes:
INC: 48% in 1998 : 49% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 1
BJP: 34% in 1998 : 36% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 2
Others: 18% in 1998 : 15% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
INC: 49% in 1998: 40% to 48% in 2003
BJP: 15% in 1998: 21% to 29% in 2003
Others: 6% in 1998: 1% to 4% in 2003
Total: 70 : 70 Popularity:
Shiela Dixit: 16% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 38
Madan Lal Khurana: 16% in 1998 : 29% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 13
Sahib Singh Verma: 11% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -5
Sushma Swaraj: 18% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -12
Others: 39% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -12
Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
INC: Leader – 54 ; Party – 49 ; Difference (5)
BJP: Leader – 29 ; Party – 36 ; Difference (-7) Change the Govt
Yes: 36%
No: 64%
Total: 100 Special Factor : Middle Class Vote Share
INC: 41% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing - 13
BJP: 49% in 1998 : 44% in 2003 : Swing - -5
Others: 10% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing - -8
Total: 100 : 100 Impact of Middle Class Swings
Impact of swing in BJP votes
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total:
Issues that may not work
Tandoor vs Development
Only development as issue: 72%
Only Tandoor as issue: 4%
Both the issues: 12%
Can’t say: 12%
Total: 100 Rajasthan
Votes:
INC: 45% in 1998 : 45% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 0
BJP: 33% in 1998 : 32% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 9
Others: 22% in 1998 : 13 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -9
Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
INC: 153 in 1998: 107 to 115 in 2003
BJP: 33 in 1998: 77 to 85 in 2003
Others: 14 in 1998: 5 to 13 in 2003
Total: 200 : 200 Popularity:
Ashok Ghelot: 28% in 1998 : 51% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 23
Vasundhara Raje: 2% in 1998 : 35% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 33
Other Congress Leaders: 11% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -9
Other BJP leaders: 41% in 1998 : 2% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -39
Others: 18% in 1998 : 10% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -8
Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
INC: Leader – 51 ; Party – 45 ; Difference (6)
BJP: Leader – 35 ; Party – 42 ; Difference (-7) Change the Govt
Yes: 48%
No: 52%
Total: 100 Special Factor : Jat Vote Bank
INC: 38% in 1998 : 32% in 2003 : Swing - -6
BJP: 43% in 1998 : 54% in 2003 : Swing - 11
Others: 19% in 1998 : 14% in 2003 : Swing - -5
Total: 100 : 100 Issue that worked
Drought relief in per cent
Govt did well in drought relief: 57%
Govt performed poorly: 26%
Can’t say: 17%
Total: 100% Impact of Congress vote swings
Impact of to & fro INC swing
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total:
Votes:
INC: 41% in 1998 : 39% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -2
BJP: 39% in 1998 : 42% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 3
BSP: 6% in 1998 : 11% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 5
Others: 14% in 1998 : 8 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -6
Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0 Seats:
INC: 124 in 1998: 77 to 85 in 2003
BJP: 83 in 1998: 122 to 138 in 2003
Others: 23 in 1998: 19 to 27 in 2003
Total: 200 : 200 Popularity:
Digvijay Singh: 25% in 1998 : 28% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 3
Uma Bharati: 2% in 1998 : 35% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 33
Other Congress Leaders: 16% in 1998 : 6% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -10
Other BJP leaders: 28% in 1998 : 7% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -21
Others: 29% in 1998 : 24% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -5 Total: 100 : 100 Leader Vs Party
INC: Leader – 34 ; Party – 39 ; Difference (-5)
BJP: Leader – 42 ; Party – 42 ; Difference (0) Change the Govt
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
Total: 100
Impact of Congress Vote Swings
Impact of to & Fro Swing
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total:
Chhattisgarh
Votes:
INC: 41% in 1998 : 38% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
BJP: 40% in 1998 : 37% in 2003 : Swing/Change - -3
NCP: 0 in 1998 : 13% in 2003 : Swing/Change - 13
Others: 19% in 1998 : 12 in 2003 : Swing/Change - -7
Total: 100 (1998) : 100 (2003): 0
Seats:
INC: 49 in 1998: 40 to 48 in 2003
BJP: 35 in 1998: 34 to 42 in 2003
Others: 6 in 1998: 2 to 5 in 2003
Total: 90 : 0
Popularity:
Ajit Jogi: 44% in SC+ST+Min : 26% in Genral: Total- 36
Dilip Singh Judev: 19% in SC+ST+Min: 31% in General: Total - 24
Vidya Charan Shukla: 18% in SC+ST+Min: 20% in General: Total - 19
Others: 19% SC+ST+Min: 23% General: Total- 21
Total: 100 : 100 : 100
Leader Vs Party
INC: Leader – 36 ; Party – 38 ; Difference (-2)
BJP: Leader – 24 ; Party – 37 ; Difference (-13)
NCP: Leader – 19 ; Party – 13 ; Difference 6
Change the Govt
Yes: 61%
No: 39%
Total: 100
Special Factor : Impact of NCP
NCP Votes Composition:
Coming from INC: 83% (Rural) : 73% (Urban) : 74% Total
Coming from BJP: 17% (Rural) : 27% (Urban) : 26% Total
Total: 100 : 100 : 100
Impact of NCP Vote Share
If NCP votes swing
INC:
BJP:
NCP:
Total:
Others:
Yes: 88%
No: 8%
Can’t say: 4%
Total: 100
Vote for Development
Satisfied with the development of state
Delhi: 64% - Yes : 36% - No
Rajasthan: 61% - Yes : 39% - No
Chhattisgarh: 57% - Yes : 43% - No
Madhya Pradesh: 34% - Yes : 66% - No
Change the government
Delhi: 36% - Yes : 64% - No
Rajasthan: 48% - Yes : 52% - No
Chhattisgarh: 61% : 39% - No
Madhya Pradesh: 65% : 35% - No
Swings Impacts and possibilities
Chhattisgarh
If NCP votes swing
INC:
BJP:
NCP:
Others:
Total:
Impact of swing in BJP votes
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total:
Impact of to & Fro Swing
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total:
Rajasthan
Impact of to & fro INC swing
INC:
BJP:
Others:
Total: