Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) has forecast the inflation rate to be in the range of 8-8.8 per cent from December 2000 till March 2001 due to increase in prices of fuel, power and lubricants. “Based on the WPI data up to November 2000 and also using information regarding the extent of increase in Government's administered oil prices, we forecast the Inflation rate for the next four months to be eight, 8.3, 8.6 and 8.8 per cent respectively,” as per the latest monthly monitor of the IEG.
Poor industrial sector performance and erratic monsoon are other factors adversely affecting inflation, by putting upward pressure on it from the supply side.
“The inflation rate based on WPI is expected to increase further in the coming months due to increase in the administered prices of petroleum products by the end of September, which will have a cascading effect on other commodities,” it said.
The report said that year-on-year inflation rate, calculated on the basis of WPI, has increased from 7.3 per cent in October to 7.45 per cent by the last week of November.
“It was 2.9 per cent in November 1999. This upward trend, which is expected, is basically due to increase in the administered prices of fuel, power, light and lubricants,” it said.
Bureau Report