2024 Lok Sabha Polls: After Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav Picks 'Yatra' Way But Can RJD-Congress Counter NDA Might In Bihar?

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently led his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra through Bihar where former Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav joined him for some parts. The duo not only rode in a jeep but also shared dias and addressed a rally together. Days after the Bharat Jodo Yatra entered Uttar Pradesh from Bihar, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has announced to lead the 'Jan Vishwas Yatra' in the state, which appears to be in line with Rahul Gandhi's ongoing yatra. "From public trust to public development. For new sunrise of development, for a permanent trustworthy government," said Tejashwi Yadav on X. The Yatra will travel through Bihar's Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi and Shivhar. But can these yatras help opposition parties counter NDA might and the popularity of Narendra Modi?

Takeaway From Assembly Elections 2023

The recently concluded assembly election results show that Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra had a limited impact on voters and the voter's decision was driven by state-level issues and promises. While in Karnataka, people voted for free bus rides, electricity and financial aides, in Madhya Pradesh, voters again opted for BJP due to the 'Ladali Behan Yojana' and the combined popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Of the three poll-bound states - Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan - that Rahul Gandhi visited during his yatra last year, it lost polls in two.

Historical Data From Bihar

The data from Bihar polls show that Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal-United remains the kingmaker despite his flip-flops. Whichever side Nitish is on, that alliance gets an advantage in the elections - be it the Lok Sabha polls or assembly elections in Bihar.

Bihar Lok Sabha Election Results 2014 (JDU part of RJD-Cong Alliance)
Party-----------Seat------------Vote Share
BJP--------------22-------------29.86%
LJSP-------------6---------------6.5%
RLSP------------3 ----------------3%
RJD-------------4----------------20.46%
JDU-------------2----------------16.04%
Congress-------2-----------------8.56%

Bihar Lok Sabha Election Results 2019  (JDU part of NDA Alliance)
Party--------------Seat--------------Vote Share
BJP-----------------17-----------------24%
JDU----------------16-----------------22.26%
LJSP----------------6-------------------8%
Congress-----------1-------------------7.85%

In 2014, when Nitish Kumar was part of the Congress-RJD alliance, the NDA won 31 out of the 40 seats while in 2019 when the JDU was with the BJP, NDA won 39 seats while RJD failed to open its account. Thus, if the voting pattern remains similar to the 2019 polls, then the RJD-Congress may again find it tough to defy the Modi magic without Nitish Kumar. While yatra may boost Tejashwi's popularity, whether it will reflect in the RJD's vote share remains to be seen.