DNA Exclusive: Super-analysis of UP's 2nd phase of voting

The state of Uttar Pradesh voted for 55 seats in its Rohilakhand region today. The region has traditionally been a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal due to the dominance of Muslim and Jat voters. The dimensions have changed this time due to Bahujan Samaj Party's unassertive campaign.

In today's DNA, Zee News Editor-In-Chief Sudhir Chaudhary analyses the voting pattern and cast arithmetic that was on play in the 2nd phase of UP elections.

Today's DNA analysis, based on on-ground inputs from Zee Media's experienced reporters, says that SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's effective social engineering made 2nd round of voting an interesting battle. The analysis will also give you an interesting insight as to how Mayawati's absence from the battlefield is affecting the polls this time.

As much as 61.80 per cent (data till 6 pm) polling took place this year, that was slightly lesser than the 65 per cent votes that were polled during the 2017 polls in this region.  

The seven out of nine districts that went to polls have a Muslim population of more than 30 per cent. In the other two districts - Muradabad and Rampur - the Muslim voters account for more than 30 per cent of the total franchise.

As per our analysis, as many as 65 to 70 per cent Muslim voters have participated in polling this time from here, this is a huge increase in comparison to 50 per cent voting by the community during the last assembly elections. 

Muslim voters are the deciding factor on 38 out of 55 seats in these nine districts. While it's clear that Muslim voters have polled more votes in comparison to 2017, the overall polling percentage has gone down - indicating lesser participation by Hindu voters here.

Akhilesh Yadav is fighting on the basis of Y+M+ J+S/M+ K + G (Yadav+Muslim+Jat+Saini+Muslim+Kurmi+Gujjar) vote bank formula this time. While BJP, under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's leadership, is fighting with the formula of 80-20 (Hindu-Muslim) vote bank. While Akhilesh Yadav is dependent on the division of Hindu vote bank, Yogi Adityanath is dependant on its polarisation.