Haryana, J&K Exit Polls: How Accurate Were Pollsters' Prediction In Past Elections?

A comparison of exit poll predictions and actual results in the past J&K and Haryana Assembly elections reveals both accurate forecasts and notable misses.

Voters wait in a queue to cast their votes. (Picture source: ANI)

With voting in Haryana concluding on Saturday evening, attention now turns to the exit polls ahead of the results on October 8. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third consecutive term, while the Congress is aiming to reclaim power after a decade. Meanwhile, the recently concluded Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, the first in ten years, have sparked a highly anticipated contest between national and regional parties alike.

Past Exit Polls For Haryana Assembly Elections  

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2014 after ending Congress party’s 10-year-long regime. However, the Exit polls slightly underestimated BJP's victory while being generally accurate for Congress. 

Four exit polls had predicted that the BJP would fall just shy of the 46-seat majority in Haryana's 90-seat Assembly, projecting the party to win around 43 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was expected to come second with 27 seats, while the Congress was forecast to win 13. 

What turned out real was that BJP secured 47 seats, and the Congress won 15, both slightly exceeding predictions. However, the INLD's result fell short, as it only won 19 seats—eight fewer than what pollsters had estimated. 

Two exit polls, News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen, had predicted that the BJP would surpass the majority mark. Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately forecasted the Congress's seat count, while News 24-Chanakya came closest to predicting the INLD's final tally. 

In 2019, however, most polls predicted a thumping BJP victory with some projecting wins in more than 70 seats. But the election ended in a hung Assembly, with all parties failing to cross the majority mark. 

Eight exit polls had estimated that the BJP would win around 61 seats in the Haryana Assembly elections, with the Congress lagging behind at 18 seats. However, the results told a different story: the BJP secured only 40 seats, while the Congress surprised with 31. 

India Today-Axis was the only one to predict BJP would fall short, with a forecast of 32-44 seats, it also predicted the Congress tally the closest, estimating a tally of 30-42 for the Congress. On average, the polls overestimated BJP’s tally by 21 seats and underestimated the Congress by 13. 

Past Exit Polls For J&K Assembly Elections 

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir were held after a decade, spanning three phases from September 18 to October 1, with a voter turnout of 63.45%, higher than in the recent Lok Sabha polls. 

In 2014, elections in the then-state took place to elect 87 members to the Assembly. The PDP became the largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25, the National Conference with 15, and the Congress with 12 seats. 

Though the Assembly's six-year term was set to end in January, 2020, the PDP-BJP government collapsed earlier, leading to President's rule in the region. 

The exit poll had predicted the PDP would lead with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP with 27-33, the NC with 8-14, and the Congress with 4-10 seats.