Mahayuti vs. MVA: Rebels, Unsettled Alliances Threaten Maharashtra’s Poll Arithmetic As Nominations Close

Maharashtra Elections: Tensions remain high as the November 4 deadline for withdrawal of candidacies approaches, especially with many party loyalists, denied tickets, refusing to step aside.

With the close of nominations for the Maharashtra assembly elections, both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) face a complex battle complicated by internal revolts and reshuffling of sitting MLAs. Major parties have barely managed to keep their candidate selections in hand, leading to unexpected alliances and independent candidacies that will disturb the electoral calculations of both camps in unpredictable ways.

Tensions remain high as the November 4 deadline for withdrawal of candidacies approaches, especially with many party loyalists, denied tickets, refusing to step aside. If these "rebels" maintain their positions, they could challenge official candidates and reshape the poll arithmetic between the Mahayuti, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar's NCP, and the MVA, which includes Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP).

BJP And Congress Replaced Most Sitting MLAs

The BJP, with the highest number of candidates of among the major parties, ousted eight sitting MLAs whereas Congress replaced five MLAs in the fray. Some the most notable changes are changes made by BJP when replaced Sunil Rane for Borivali seat against Sanjay Upadhyay, who received resistance from Gopal Shetty, a two-time MLA also former Lok Sabha member also filed an independent nomination challenging BJP candidate Sanjay Upadhyay. The state BJP leaders tried to calm down Shetty but he agreed not to withdraw his candidature.

Other districts also saw familiar faces leaving the seats. Congress decided to field Hemant Ogale over Lahu Kanade for Shrirampur, and Rajkumar Puram took the place of Sahasram Korote in Amgaon. The two NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar replaced two MLAs each, and the Shiv Sena kept almost all loyalists from Shinde's previous rebellion except dropping Shrinivas Vanga from Palghar.

Independent Nominations Surface Everywhere In State

BJP is facing stiff resistance, particularly from prominent leaders and other influential personalities who are being denied tickets by the party. In Mumbadevi constituency of Mumbai, Atul Shah has filed nomination as an independent candidate whereas in Aurangabad constituency, the Shiv Sena (UBT) nominee Kishanchand Tanwani had withdrawn the nomination in favor of the Pradeep Jaiswal, the Shiv Sena candidate of Shinde's led Shiv Sena.

In Chandrapur, two former BJP MLAs, Sanjay Dhote and Sudarshan Nimkar, filed nominations as independents against the BJP's official candidate, Devrao Bhongale. Former Union minister Raosaheb Danve's brother Bhaskar joined the rebel ranks, filing against Shiv Sena's nominee Arjun Khotkar in Jalna. NCP rebel Abha Pande is standing against sitting BJP MLA Krishna Khopde in Nagpur East, which further complicates the party's strategy in the region.

Cross-Party Nominations Causing Friction In Alliances

One other dimension in this problem is that alliance in the state has its complex structure: it so happens that in few seats candidates of Mahayuti as well as of MVA fight against each other. Same is the situation in Solapur South constituency: Congress also fielded independent candidate here, Dilip Mane for contesting this seat for which no official nomination has been issued; Shiv Sena's ticket candidate contesting against it. NCP/SP also is the same scenario in constituency of Pandharpur-Mangalvedha.

According to political observer Abhay Deshpande, "The alliance with NCP has created tough moments for the BJP and Shiv Sena. Mainly Assembly elections are fought on candidate image, and with alliances limiting seats each party can contest, party loyalists find it difficult to back a united front.".

A fierce battle is foreseen because by the time polling takes place on November 20, and counting takes place on November 23, it will be all about an interplay between rebels and shifting loyalties to independent candidatures. As of November 4, candidates will make their final withdrawals, finally deciding which candidates will line up at the 288 Maharashtra assembly constituencies.