Met predicts normal monsoon in 2018, monthly rainfall likely to be 101% in July

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday predicted normal southwest monsoon season in 2018. Met said rainfall over the country from June to September is most likely to be normal of long period average.

As per second stage operational long range forecasts of IMD, region wise, North-West India is likely to receive the maximum rainfall this year with a forecast of 100 per cent of long period average (LPA). Central India is likely to get 99% of LPA, South Peninsula 95% of LPA and North-East India 93% of LPA.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of its LPA during July and 94% of LPA during August.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the season (June to September) rainfall over the country is:

Category	Rainfall Range(% of LPA)	ForecastProbability (%)	ClimatologicalProbability (%)
Deficient	< 90	13	16
Below Normal	90 - 96	28	17
Normal	96 -104	43	33
Above Normal	104 -110	13	16
Excess	> 110	3	17

The moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific in later part of the last year weakened to weak La Nina conditions early this year and currently have turned to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. At present, the warm neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The MMCFS and other global climate models indicate weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and continue to persist till the early part of the post-monsoon season.