The Next Pandemic: Disease X Is Deadlier Than COVID-19, Could Kill 50 Million People

The World Health Organization (WHO), had also alerted the world of the possibility of an "inevitable" next pandemic, dubbed "Disease X" in 2018 before the COVID-19 outbreak.

New Delhi: A new book by two vaccine experts has warned that the world is not prepared for the next pandemic, which could be caused by any of the millions of unknown viruses lurking on our planet. The authors claim that such a pandemic could kill 50 million people, just like the Spanish Flu did a century ago. Kate Bingham, the former chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, and Tim Hames, a former journalist and political adviser, have co-authored a book titled The Next Killer: How to Stop the Next Pandemic Before It Starts. In an excerpt published in the Daily Mail, they explain how viruses are the most abundant and diverse life forms on Earth, and how many of them pose a threat to humans.

"There are more viruses busily replicating and mutating than all the other life forms on our planet combined. Not all of them pose a threat to humans, of course – but plenty do," they write.

They say that scientists have identified 25 virus families, each containing hundreds or thousands of different viruses, any of which could evolve to cause a pandemic. They also warn that viruses could jump from animals to humans and mutate dramatically, as seen in the cases of Ebola, HIV/AIDS and Covid-19.

The Loming Danger Of Disease X

The authors' warning echoes the World Health Organization (WHO), which has also alerted the world of the possibility of an "inevitable" next pandemic, dubbed "Disease X". The WHO coined the term in 2018, a year before the Covid-19 pandemic struck the world. It is among the WHO's "Blueprint list priority diseases" that could cause the next deadly pandemic and includes Ebola, SARS and Zika.

"Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease," the WHO said. The Blueprint list highlights infectious diseases for which we lack medical countermeasures. Some public health experts believe that the next Disease X will be zoonotic, meaning it will originate in wild or domestic animals, then spill over to infect humans, as Ebola, HIV/AIDS and Covid-19.

The Need For Pandemic Preparedness

The authors argue that the Covid-19 pandemic, which killed some 20 million people globally, was not the worst-case scenario. They point out that the virus had a relatively low fatality rate compared to other viruses such as Ebola, bird flu and MERS. They say that the world cannot rely on luck to avoid the next pandemic, which could be much more deadly and contagious.

"The point is that the vast majority of people infected with the virus managed to recover. Ebola, on the other hand, has a fatality rate of around 67 per cent. Bird flu is not far behind at 60 per cent. Even MERS hit 34 per cent. So we certainly can't bank on the next pandemic being easily contained," they write.

They call for urgent action to improve the world's pandemic preparedness, such as investing in vaccine research and development, strengthening health systems and surveillance, and enhancing global cooperation and coordination. They say that the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when, and that the world must be ready to face it.