Zee Exit poll 2022: BJP set to win UP, Manipur; AAP to sweep Punjab, Congress may form govt in Uttarakhand and Goa

NEW DELHI: Zee News, which is one of the country’s largest media houses, on Monday broadcast the results of the biggest ever exit polls for the hard-fought assembly elections 2022 in five major states – UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur.

Zee News had conducted the biggest ever exit polls to check the mood of the voters in five states which went to the polls recently. The Zee News exit poll 2022 predicted the BJP retaining power in UP and Manipur, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP looks set to sweep Punjab, while Congress is most likely to form a govt in Uttarkhand. The exit polls also predicted a neck-and-neck verdict in Goa, with both BJP and the Congress tipped to win nearly 15-16 of the state's 40 seats.

The intensity of the high-decibel campaign can be gauged by the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all top leaders from the mainstream political parties had to come on the road to campaign in roadshows. 

Uttar Pradesh

According to the projections for Uttar Pradesh, the ruling BJP is likely to emerge as a big winner by winning between 223- 248 seats. Though the ruling party is projected to win much fewer seats this time as compared to the 2017 polls, the Zee News exit poll predicting a thumping victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh also points to voters' continued trust in Yogi Adityanath's government and PM Narendra Modi's decisive leadership. 

Driven by the Modi wave, the BJP had stormed to power in UP after 14 years, securing a three-fourths majority and demolishing rivals Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2017 polls.

Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party-led alliance is expected to win between 138-157 seats this time. Despite hectic campaigning by Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka, the Congress party is only expected to win between 4-9 seats. While Mayawati’s BSP will disappoint again as it is projected to win just 5 to 11 seats, Others are like to bag between 3-5 seats.

Vote share in UP

Among other projections, the ruling BJP+ is likely to secure around 39 per cent of the total votes polled, SP+ 34%, BSP 13%, CONG 6% and OTH 8%.

Punjab

As per the projections, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is likely sweep assembly polls in Punjab by winning between 52-61 seats out of the total 117 constituencies. While the Congress is likely to come out as the second biggest party in the northern state with 26-33 seats, it would be closely followed by Shiromani Akali Dal which is likely to win between 24-32 seats.

It seems like both BJP and Capt Amarinder Singh’s PLC have failed to woo the voters as the exit polls suggest the duo getting only 3-5 seats in Punjab. As far as the regional figures are concerned, in Punjab’s largest Malwa region, AAP is likely to emerge as the highest scorer with 38-42 seats while Congress is expected to win around 12- 16 votes and SAD  between 10-14 seats.

Similarly in the Majha region, which is said to be a rural belt of Punjab, AAP seems to be emerging as a clear winner by winning between 11-15 seats out of the total 25 seats. Shiromani Akali Dal and Congress are likely to see a close contest in the Majha region with 5-8 seats. BJP is likely to get zero seats here in the Majha region.

As far as the Doaba region is concerned, AAP is likely to take the second position here with only 3-5 seats in its kitty out of the total 23 seats. Congress in this region might emerge as the highest scorer with 9-10 seats closely followed by SAD with 8-10 seats.
Seat projection (70)

Uttarakhand

The fate of 632 candidates for the 70-member Uttarakhand assembly was sealed on February 14 as the state voted in a single phase. The Zee News exit poll has predicted a close fight between the ruling BJP and the Congress in Uttarakhand. According to the projections for the hill state of Uttarakhand, Congress led by former chief minister Harish Rawat is expected to win around 35-40 seats. While Congress is predicted to make a strong comeback in the hill state, the ruling BJP is likely to win over 25 seats. 

According to the Zee News exit poll, Mayawati-led BSP is projected to win between 2-3 seats and Others 1-3 seats. In the state's previous elections that were held in 2017, the BJP, led by Trivendra Singh Rawat, had won by an overwhelming margin, bagging 57 of the 70 seats. The Congress had finished second with 11 seats, and the remaining two seats had gone to Independent candidates.

As far as the vote share is concerned, the Zee News exit poll indicates a drop in the seat share for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, predicting a close battle with the main opposition party Congress. The BJP is expected to secure around 35 per cent of the total votes polled, slightly less than Congress which is predicted to gather around 39% votes. AAP is expected to get 9%, BSP 8% and Others 9% votes.

The assembly polls were held for 70 seats in Uttarakhand and the state recorded a slightly lower turnout this year - 62.5 per cent across the 13 districts. In 2017, the voter turnout for the 69 seats of the Uttarakhand Assembly was 65.64%. 

Goa

As per Zee News exit poll 2022, the Congress-led alliance is predicted to bag 14-19 seats, followed by BJP which can secure around 13-18 seats in Goa. The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) alliance is likely to win 2-5 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and others can win 1-3 seats each.  

As far as the vote share is concerned, the Congress-led alliance is likely to emerge as the largest party with a 33 per cent vote share. The BJP is likely to follow Congress by getting a 31 per cent vote share. MGP coalition, AAP and others are likely to grab 12 per cent vote share each, as per Zee exit poll.

Manipur

In Manipur, the N Biren Singh government looks set to retain power in this north-eastern state by getting around a 39% vote share. According to Zee News-DesignBoxed's Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win between 32-38 seats out of the 60 assembly seats. Congress, on the other hand, is likely to get 12- 17 seats. While the NPF may win 3-5 seats, the NPP is expected to get 2-4 seats. 

Here is the party-wise seat share: BJP 32-38; CONGRESS+ 12- 17; NPF 3-5; NPP 2-4; OTHERS 2-5. The ruling BJP is expected to secure around 39% vote share, CONGRESS+ 30%, NPF 09%, NPP 06% and OTHERS 16%. 

The hill state had voted in two phases – on February 28 and March 5. The BJP, notably, had formed the government in Manipur in 2017 with the support of the National People's Party (NPP), Naga People's Front (NPF), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). However, the saffron party contested all the seats on its own this time.

As per the Election Commission of India directives, the exit poll findings can be released only after the conclusion of voting in all the states that go to the polls simultaneously. The embargo on exit polls was lifted after the conclusion of the seventh phase of assembly polls in UP, around 6.30 PM.

After the seventh phase of voting in Uttar Pradesh, the assembly elections in five states finally came to an end on Monday. The results of the elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur will now be announced on March 10.