UP exit polls results 2017 analysis: BJP to emerge as single largest party - Here's what it may mean for PM Narendra Modi and Akhilesh Yadav

Wrapping up his hectic campaign for Assembly polls in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 06 had made an impassioned plea to voters to defeat SP-Congress combine and the BSP. And if the various exit polls on Thursday are to be believed then the voters may just have accepted Prime Minister's prayers. However, not quite fully, as most projections have said that while BJP may emerge as the single-largest party in the state, it may fall short of a majority. However, two exit polls have said that the BJP will sweep UP.

Whether BJP emerges as the single-largest party in the state or sweeps it, it's going to be a spectacular victory for the BJP either way, considering it won 47 seats in the last Assembly polls. While it’s a high stakes elections for the BJP, the polls in the Hindi heartland have also become a personal battle of sorts for the PM Modi and an implied referendum especially after the demonetisation move.

The very fact that he spent an unprecedented three days in his Parliamentary constituency Varanasi reflects how desperate he and BJP chief Amit Shah are to win UP. Also to be noted is the fact that he addressed 23 rallies in UP - his highest so far for any state Assembly elections. BJP president Amit Shah addressed 200 big and small rallies.

Their desperation also reflects from the fact that PM Modi, who since 2014 steered clear from making comments which could be termed as 'polarising', made a statement on 'shamshaan-kabristaan' and 'Holi-Ramzaan' mid-way during the polls in UP. While it can be debated whether what he said was based on pure facts or was made for political gains, it may have resulted in consolidation of so-called 'Hindutava' votes for the saffron party.

A win in UP will galvanise PM Modi and BJP for 2019 Lok Sabha polls and give ammunition to the NDA government at the Centre to go ahead with more reforms in the next two and a half years.

On the other hand, for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav it will be a serious debacle if he were to lose power and knives are surely going to be out for him. Most of the exit polls have said that he along with the Congress will be runners up in the state.

He took a huge risk in the run-up to the polls by rebelling against his father and uncle and aligning with the Congress. But then one who takes risks must be ready for the pitfalls. The party contested on 298 seats, giving 105 to the Congress. In the 2012 Assembly polls, Samajwadi Party had won 224 seats and Akhilesh had created history by becoming the youngest chief minister of the state.

As for the Congress, it will be another loss for Rahul Gandhi in a series of debacles starting from 2014 General Elections. But in all likelihood and like always, the grand old party will shield him from criticism and look for scapegoats to put the blame on. And, if they win Punjab, as some exit polls are saying that they will, the party will credit Rahul for it and harp on it.

But then if Congress has any hopes of taking on PM Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, then losing UP will be bad news for them. The party took out 'kisan yatra' from Deoria to Delhi, with Rahul slamming the SP, BSP and BJP by saying '27 saal, UP behaal', but later jumped on to the 'cycle' realising that it was fighting a losing battle. Such defeatist attitude will do no good for the Congress and certainly not Rahul.

Coming to the BSP, if exit polls predictions turn out to be correct and if Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ends up at the third place, she and her party will be in serious trouble. Having scored a duck in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, winning UP would have given a lifeline to Mayawati and though one should never write off any politician and any party, its likely to be a slide for the BSP from here on.

Mayawati had promised not to make any more monuments and parks that she did in her 2007-2012 regime and revolved her campaign around the poor law and order in the state, but it seems not to have cut ice with the voters.

Whatever the results may be on March 11, the UP elections will be remembered for a long time to be one of the most closely and bitterly contested elections in recent times, in which all parties tried to give their best to win over the electorate.