Uttarakhand assembly polls 2022: BJP to retain power in close contest, claims new survey

New Delhi: The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in next year`s tight electoral contest in the hilly state of Uttarakhand, as per a new survey.

The third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker survey suggests that BJP is benefitting from the division of anti-incumbency votes between Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the new entrant in the political fray in the state, as per the survey.

According to the survey data, the saffron party is expected to grab 39.8 per cent votes in the upcoming Assembly polls in the state. While the main opposition party - Congress - is likely to garner 35.7 per cent votes, new entrant AAP is expected to corner 12.6 per cent votes in the Assembly polls scheduled early next year.

The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from November 13 to December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters. As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ across 5 states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa) and was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey). 

The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.

As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). 

It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.

If we look at the region-wise findings of the opinion poll, the survey data suggests that while the BJP will outperform its political rivals in Kumaon and Garhwal regions, Congress is expected to have an edge over the saffron party in the Tarai region.

Interestingly, according to the survey data, Congress leader and former Chief Minister Harish Rawat is the most preferred candidate for the CM`s post in the upcoming Assembly elections.

During the survey, while 33.5 per cent of the respondents said that Congress leader Harish Rawat is their preferred choice for the post of Chief Minister, 26.6 per cent of those surveyed said that they want sitting Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami to return to the top job in state.

A total of 18 per cent of those interviewed said that Anil Singh Baluni of BJP is the best choice for the CM`s post, and 8.9 per cent spoke in favour of Col. Ajay Kothiyal of AAP.

Notably, the survey findings suggest that Pushkar Singh Dhami has been successful in placating the electorate of the state since he took charge as the head of the state government in July this year.

During the survey, as many as 64.1 per cent of the respondents said that public anger against the Uttarakhand government caused during the tenure of Trivendra Singh Rawat has gone down by the work done by Pushkar Singh. 

However, 35.9 per cent of those who participated in the survey, said that the public anger continues to persist against the state government under the incumbent Chief Minister as well.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi`s Kedarnath Yatra last month seems to have been successful in turning people`s mood in favour of BJP, as per the findings of the latest round of Tracker.

During the survey, 57.5 per cent of the respondents said that people`s mood has changed in favour of BJP after PM`s visit to Kedarnath, while 35.9 per cent said that PM`s visit made no change in voters` opinion about the saffron party.

The survey data further suggests that the decision of the Pushkar Singh Dhami government to dissolve the Devastahanam Board will help the BJP in the upcoming Assembly polls.

The priests of the Char Dham - Kedarnath, Badrinath, Gangotri and Yamunotri - have been opposed to the Board that was constituted during the chief ministership of Trivendra Singh Rawat to run the affairs of 51 temples in Uttarakhand, including the Char Dham.

The priests of Char Dham viewed the Board as encroaching upon their rights. During the survey, while 60.1 per cent of the respondents said that scrapping the Devasthanam Board will help the BJP in the upcoming Assembly polls, 39.1 per cent said the decision will not benefit the ruling party.

The Congress has declared to make Gairsain the permanent capital of Uttarakhand, hoping to benefit from the announcement in the coming Assembly elections, but the survey findings suggest that the opposition party will not benefit much from the announcement.

During the survey, as many as 62.4 per cent of the respondents said that the Congress` announcement to make Gairsain the permanent capital of Uttarakhand will not benefit it in the upcoming Assembly polls, while 37.6 per cent said that it can help the opposition party.