Shift In Allegiances: Trump’s Unexpected Appeal And Harris’s Dwindling Prospects

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Donald Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential election, stating that the results showed Americans had given him a strong and historic mandate. Pennsylvania was called in his favour shortly after 2 am (Eastern Time). By that point of time, he had already established a clear lead, having earlier secured wins in such important swing states as North Carolina and Georgia. According to The New York Times, the figures at around 2.30 pm (IST) stood at Trump: 277 and Kamala Harris: 224. Harris’s chances of winning faded, as she performed significantly worse than Joe Biden did in the 2020 election.

Harris’s chances of winning quickly took a downturn. Just a few hours after the first polls closed, it became clear that she was struggling to gain ground against Donald Trump. Trump seemed to attract more support from both city and rural voters compared to his race against Joe Biden in 2020.

In the early morning of November 6, Trump spoke at an event in Florida. Before the election, polls showed that Harris seemed to have the upper hand, while Trump appeared tired and frustrated with his campaign. This made his success in the election even more surprising. As expected, the Republicans also won control of the Senate, and they looked likely to gain control of the House of Representatives too.

Outside the main battleground states, things were not looking good for Harris’s campaign either. In Virginia, a state Joe Biden had won handsomely in 2020, Harris managed only a slim victory. Even in such suburban areas as Loudoun County, near Washington, DC, her support fell short of Biden’s performance four years ago.

This trend was worrying even as Trump won Pennsylvania, delivering a harsh blow to Harris. Her chances didn’t look much better in such other Midwestern states as Michigan, where Trump led with 50.1% votes against Harris’s 48.1% as more than 95% of the votes were counted by 5.41 am (ET) and Wisconsin, where Trump won with 49.9% of the votes against Harris’s 48.6%, even though suburban voters were essential for her success. In Florida, where Trump won with 56.1% of the votes against Harris’s 43%, she performed worse than Biden, who had lost there by a bit more than three percentage points in 2020.

Harris and the Democratic Party need to figure out why they did not do well in the election. It suggests that their poor performance might be because voters were frustrated with those in power and wanted to express that by voting against them. This is similar to what has happened in other countries, where people often vote against the leaders currently in office if they feel unhappy with how things are going.

Trump seems to have successfully energized non-white voters, including Latino and blacks, broadening his support base compared to previous elections. This shift is surprising, showing that his appeal has expanded to groups beyond his usual base, making his political comeback a remarkable one. Meanwhile, many expected that enough women would vote to elect the first female president, but this did not happen, leaving Democrats questioning why they struggled to connect with key voter groups.

(Girish Linganna is a Defence and Aerospace Analyst based out of Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. The views expressed in this article are of the author only.