New Delhi: India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should grow in the range of 6.7-6.9 percent during the third quarter (Q3) of FY24, an State Bank of India (SBI) research report has said.


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The Research Report from the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI Group Chief Economic Adviser, said, "Factoring the slight decline in economic activity in Q3 FY24, we estimate GDP should grow in the range of 6.7-6.9% with a GVA growth of 6.6%."


The SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index --which is a basket of 41 leading indicators which includes parameters from almost all the sectors --based on monthly data shows a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3.


The report mentions that as per First Advance Estimates, the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 is 148.5 MMT, which is a decline of ~4.6% from FY23. While, the sowing season for rabi crops concluded on 23 Feb, indicate a slight increase in overall acreage compared to the previous year. However, concerns arose over the sown area under cereals, which saw a decline of 6.5% from the previous year.


While agriculture may see some moderation if the rabi output does not offset the kharif shortfall, value added in in agriculture will decline, the SBI report added. 


The inland fish production has shown a rapid growth from 2014-15 to 2022-23. and reached to 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The share of Fisheries sector constitutes about 1.07 % of the total national GVA and 6.86 % of Agricultural GVA. So, this might support the Agri & Allied sector growth in FY24, it said.


"As a counter narrative to the global gloom, consumer confidence has strengthened further in India, driven chiefly by optimism about the general economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also point towards strong business optimism," the report added.