London, Jan 30: World wheat production is expected to jump to around 601m tonnes in ’04 from 554m in ’03 and 567m in ’02, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its monthly report, published on Thursday. Last month, the IGC said in a statement containing its first tentative projection of world wheat output for the ’04-05 campaign that production would come in at around 589m tonnes, assuming a recovery in major producing countries including the European Union and India, and continued large harvests in North America.
In its January report, the first for two months, the IGC also said global coarse grain output would amount to 892m tonnes in ’03-04, down from the 894m it estimated in November but up 11m from 881m tonnes in ’03-04. The IGC estimate for global coarse grain consumption was pegged at 927m tonnes for ’03-04, up three million tonnes from its November estimate and 20m tonnes higher than 907m seen in ’02-03.
It put world wheat consumption at 587m tonnes for ’03-04, a drop of 13m tonnes on ’02-03, while wheat stocks for this season were put at 131m tonnes, up two million from November, yet still 33m tonnes down from ’02-03.
Global coarse grain stocks are expected to fall to around 127m tonnes in ’03-04, the report said, four million tonnes lower than its November estimated and some 35m down on its estimate for ’02-03.
“We’ve reduced the figure for coarse grain stocks in the main exporting blocks by eight million tonnes from our last report, largely because of anticipated lower production and increased usage in the US and the likelihood that a weaker dollar will boost exports from that area,” a spokesman for the IGC said.
Bureau Report