Washington, Aug 27: Congressional budget experts has predicted the US federal deficit would surge to a record 480 billion dollars in fiscal year 2004 and could be pushed even higher by Iraq reconstruction costs. The figure was slightly higher than the 475 billion dollar gap predicted by the White House for the fiscal year starting October 01.

But the CBO yesterday said the deficit could top 500 billion dollars with a supplemental budget requested expected for reconstruction in Iraq.

The CBO said the deficit would total 401 billion dollars in the current fiscal year, which ends September 30. That deficit would be the largest ever in dollar terms but smaller than the deficits of the 1980s as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The figure represents 3.7 per cent of us economic output.

The report said government finances "have deteriorated sharply because of declining revenues - for the third year in a row - combined with double-digit growth in discretionary spending."

The CBO deficit projection is somewhat less than the 455 billion dollar gap projected by the white house, mainly because the Congressional office expects some spending programmes to be pushed into the next fiscal year. Over the next decade, the CBO expects shortfalls to begin declining after 2004, posting a cumulative deficit of 1.397 trillion dollars between 2004 and 2013.

The forecast, however, assumes that recent tax cuts scheduled to expire in coming years won't be extended.

Bureau Report