New Delhi, Nov 01: In line with other rating agencies and economic organisations, Crisil on Friday forecast over 7.1 per cent economic growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon but warned that the fiscal deficit would overshoot the target besides lower export growth. "We expect 7.1 per cent overall GDP growth in 2003-04 with agriculture growing by 7.3 per cent, industry by 6.3 per cent and services-7.5 per cent", credit rating agency Crisil said in its mid-year outlook released.
Projecting a below 10 per cent export growth as against a target of 12 per cent, Crisil expected the rupee to remain in the range of Rs 45-46 to the US dollar in the current monetary and interest rate scenario.
Forecasting fiscal deficit to be at 5.8 per cent of the GDP as against the official target of 5.6 per cent, it said average inflation would hover around 4.8 per cent as against 2.9 per cent at the end of 2002-03.
Interest rates were likely to remain at current levels for the rest of the year and RBI's credit policy announcements on November three "may push the short end of the yield curve down somewhat". Bureau Report