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Exit Silver Fox: The Pioneer
New Delhi, Nov 26: The fall of Mr Eduard Shevardnadze, the founder of modern Georgia, on Monday was the result of an unbelievable convergence of interests between former Cold War rivals.
New Delhi, Nov 26: The fall of Mr Eduard Shevardnadze, the founder of modern Georgia, on Monday was the result of an unbelievable convergence of interests between former Cold War rivals. Washington and Moscow, both eyeing the Caspian Sea`s enormous oil wealth, have reportedly forged an alliance to prevent civil war conditions, which seem to be engulfing this failed nation, from creating an Afghanistan in Europe.
Ironically, the erstwhile Soviet Union`s last Foreign Minister`s political exit in Georgia has had to be diplomatically brokered. US Secretary of State Colin Powell-who flew into Tbilisi to persuade the `Silver Fox` (as Mr Shevardnadze was called in the last years of the Cold War) to step down in the region`s larger economic interests-is learnt to have been in constant touch with his Russian counterpart, Mr Igor Ivanov, till minutes before that meeting. Mr Shevardnadze, had played the Western card for the past few years (he had allowed NATO troops to exercise on Georgian soil which Russia considered its backyard despite the country`s independent status) to stave off Moscow`s pressure to expel Chechen rebels from the Pankisi Gorge. But all this failed in the end, because the US realised that his dangerous political games-the most recent being the rigging of the third general elections-threatened Georgia`s survival, jeopardising the laying of pipes across the country to take Azerbaijani gas to western Europe via Turkey.
Russia too has staked much of its economic recovery programme on royalties from this project. Besides, regaining its leverage with a difficult southern neighbour would do it no harm. It has become a veritable political patron to the erstwhile Opposition now in power. Put simply, after the Afghan experience where US-Russian confrontation led to many lost opportunities in the 1990s, Georgia`s neighbours, real and virtual, are desperate to restore stability in Tbilisi. Unfortunately, however, this nation of 4.9 million is one of the few truly failed states in the world. Like Afghanistan, its population is torn apart by clan loyalties. Georgia has fallen apart several times in the past seven centuries. At present its autonomous republics, some of which like Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Ajaria are nearly independent, are seeing strong, pro-statehood movements. There are too many charismatic regional leaders thirsting to convert their fiefdoms into nationhood. Other regions, populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis and Armenians, are also simmering.
The greatest potential for conflict lies in Adzharia. If the rivalry between Mr Shevardnadze and Mr Mikhail Saakashvilli over control of Tsilbisi was the mainstay of Georgian domestic politics till yesterday, the stage has shifted to this autonomous Black Sea region. As news of Mr Shevardnadze`s resignation spread, a state of emergency was clamped on it and, for the past two days, it has been virtually shut off from the rest of the country. The situation is fraught with danger as any flare up can harm US-Russian collaboration which is crucial to the economic development of the Eurasian region.