United Nations, June 26: Uncertainty surrounding the war in Iraq and SARS, along with lagging trade and investment, have delayed a global economic recovery until later this year, the United Nations said today in its annual economic survey.
The UN report said Gross World Product, which increased by less than 2 per cent last year, would inch up to 2.2 per cent in 2003, accelerating slightly above 3 per cent for 2004. The GWP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced worldwide in a given year.
Last year's report had forecast a recovery late last year from a dramatic economic slowdown in 2001.
Ian Kinniburgh, director of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs that prepared the 18-page report, said concerns in the run-up to the March 20 US-led invasion of Iraq, which divided the international community, were the primary reason for the delay.
The uncertainty "discouraged consumers from spending, investors from investing and generally was the main factor we believe in derailing the recovery," Kinniburgh said, although he stressed that the military action was briefer and less disruptive than had been expected.
The report predicted that the end of the war, the containment of an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, known as SARS, in Asia and Canada and positive fiscal and monetary policies would pave the way for a U.S.-led global recovery starting in the second half of next year.
Bureau Report