Beijing, Oct 29: Even as China's trade surplus is set to dwindle, the Communist giant is set to become the world's fourth largest trading nation this year with its foreign trade set to reach a record USD 800 billion, the state media reported today. "China's total foreign trade volume will reach 780-800 billion dollars for 2003, up 25 per cent year-on-year," China daily said quoting an "authoritative report".

"If this prediction proves correct, it will make China the fourth biggest trader in the world," the daily reported. However, China's trade surplus for the first nine months of the year has already fallen by 54.3 per cent to USD 9.15 billion, while imports during the same period soared 40.5 per cent to USD 298.56 billion.

China's trade surplus for 2003 is expected to shrink sharply to USD 10 billion, the bi-annual report, issued by the China foreign trade situation report panel, which comprises experts from the ministry of commerce and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Co-operation, said. Imports far outstripped the growth in exports, which rose 32.3 per cent to USD 307.7 billion.

Coupled with slowing exports next year, imports will grow rapidly because of continuing robust demand – pushing the trade surplus into deficit, it said. However, the report states, the small deficit will not have an impact on the Chinese economy if the imports are reasonably spread over all sectors.

Bureau Report