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US recovery cold comfort for unemployed
Washington, July 28: If you believe the experts, the U.S. economy is starting to regain momentum. But ask Murray Kieffer, laid off in May 2001 from his sales manager job in Minneapolis, and you get a very different answer.
Washington, July 28: If you believe the experts, the U.S. economy is starting to regain momentum. But ask Murray Kieffer, laid off in May 2001 from his sales manager job in Minneapolis, and you get a very different answer.
"I certainly haven't seen any major change," said Kieffer, a 47-year-old father of two who spends seven hours a day job-hunting.
Last week, the arbiter of economic cycles made it official -- the recession ended nearly two years ago, in November 2001.
But unemployment is rising, not falling, and policy-makers have begun talking about the same "jobless recovery" phenomenon seen following the 1990-91 recession.
Economists know all too well employment does not immediately improve when an economy emerges from recession. The ranks of the unemployed may not thin for months even if growth surges and business investment kicks in tomorrow.
When the previous recession ended in March 2001, the jobless rate was 6.8 per cent. Rather than falling as the recovery took hold, unemployment rose steadily over the next year, peaking at 7.8 per cent in June 1992. Unemployment did not fall back below 6.8 per cent again until August 1993 -- more than two years after the recession ended.
Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said this week he expects the unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high around the current level of 6.4 per cent through the end of 2003, declining only gradually to 6.0 per cent in 2004.
Bill Dudley, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, agreed. "I wouldn't expect to see the unemployment rate really falling until probably the end of the year," he said.
Bureau Report
Last week, the arbiter of economic cycles made it official -- the recession ended nearly two years ago, in November 2001.
But unemployment is rising, not falling, and policy-makers have begun talking about the same "jobless recovery" phenomenon seen following the 1990-91 recession.
Economists know all too well employment does not immediately improve when an economy emerges from recession. The ranks of the unemployed may not thin for months even if growth surges and business investment kicks in tomorrow.
When the previous recession ended in March 2001, the jobless rate was 6.8 per cent. Rather than falling as the recovery took hold, unemployment rose steadily over the next year, peaking at 7.8 per cent in June 1992. Unemployment did not fall back below 6.8 per cent again until August 1993 -- more than two years after the recession ended.
Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said this week he expects the unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high around the current level of 6.4 per cent through the end of 2003, declining only gradually to 6.0 per cent in 2004.
Bill Dudley, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, agreed. "I wouldn't expect to see the unemployment rate really falling until probably the end of the year," he said.
Bureau Report