New Delhi: The political landscape in Bihar is currently ablaze with speculation and heated discussions, primarily centered around the rumored strains between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal United (JDU). Despite the absence of explicit statements from either party regarding a potential split, the air is thick with anticipation for the next move by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.


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Amidst this uncertainty, the RJD, under the leadership of political heavyweight Lalu Yadav, is actively crafting a counter-strategy. Lalu Yadav, renowned for his political acumen, possesses several strategic options that could potentially reshape the political narrative in Bihar.


Political experts highlight Assembly Speaker Avadh Bihari Chaudhary as a key asset in Lalu Yadav's current hand of cards. Chaudhary, an RJD MLA, assumed the role of the assembly speaker through the JDU alliance. Analysts suggest that, under favorable circumstances, Lalu Yadav could leverage Chaudhary's position to execute strategic political maneuvers, possibly positioning his son, Tejashwi Yadav, as the next Chief Minister of Bihar.


In the intricate dance of political alliances, it's crucial to understand the party dynamics in the Bihar Assembly. With a total of 243 seats, the magic number for forming a government is 122. In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD emerged as the largest party with 79 seats, closely followed by the BJP at 78 seats. Nitish Kumar's JDU secured 45 seats, Congress 19, Left 16, HAM party 5, and one independent.


Lalu Yadav's array of options includes the prospect of forming an RJD government by presenting letters of support from 79 RJD, 19 Congress, 16 Communist parties, and independent MLAs. While this would fall seven short of the majority, tactics inspired by the Maharashtra model could be employed. The RJD might attempt to woo JDU MLAs, potentially creating a separate faction under the RJD quota, mirroring the strategy used in Maharashtra.


Facing potential obstacles, Lalu Yadav could also explore influencing the floor test by convincing JDU MLAs to be absent, thereby reducing the majority figure. Alternatively, inducing resignations from some JDU MLAs could strategically diminish opposition numbers in the assembly, paving the way for RJD to realize its government formation aspirations.


However, the biggest hurdle in Lalu Yadav's path is Governor Rajendra Arlekar. The success of these intricate political moves hinges on the Governor's acceptance of Lalu Yadav's claim to form the government. If the Governor favors Nitish Kumar, the seasoned political strategist Lalu Yadav might find his arsenal of options rendered powerless. The coming days promise a riveting political saga in Bihar as the battle for power and strategic maneuvering intensifies. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving political drama.