India likely to have a normal monsoon in 2020, forecasts IMD

In a good news for millions of farmers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday that India is likely to have a normal monsoon in 2020.

“We will have a normal monsoon this year. Quantitatively the monsoon rainfall during the monsoon season 2020 is expected to be 100% of its long period average with an error of +5 or -5% due to model error,” Madhavan Rajeevan, the secretary with the ministry of earth sciences (MoES), told the media.

The IMD also released the dates of onset of monsoon in several places in its first stage Long Range Forecast (LRF) for south-west monsoon season, which falls between June till September.

According to Rajeevan, the monsoon in Kerala would arrive on June 1, in Chennai on June 4, in Panjim on June 7, in Hyderabad on June 8, in Pune on June 10 and in Mumbai on June 11.

According to IMD, the monsoon is expected to hit Delhi on June 27.

LRF is the operational monsoon season forecast issued by IMD from June to September for the country but it does not include regional level rainfall or specify quantum rainfall for the forecast period

It is to be noted that LRF is issued by the IMD in two stages - first stage forecast in April and the second one is issued in June.

The IMD officials use use Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and dynamical coupled ocean-atmospheric models to issue these forecasts.

In India, monsoon season begins in June and it starts to retreat by September. The monsoon rainfall is very impportant for Indian farmers as it is required for the cultivation of rice, wheat, sugarcane and oilseeds.