NEW DELHI: The anticipation surrounding the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has reached a fever pitch as the entire nation eagerly awaits to witness the political spectacle unfold. Top parties have geared up with fervour, and amidst this political frenzy, the phase of speculations has begun, with the announcement of election dates looming on the horizon. Amid this atmosphere, Zee News and MATRIZE have conducted an opinion poll, marking the first such poll after the formation of alliances, including the joining of new allies with the NDA and the emergence of the opposition's INDIA bloc.


Poll Statistics


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The Zee News-MATRIZE Lok Sabha Opinion Poll was conducted between February 5th and February 27th. It garnered opinions from 1,67,843 individuals across 543 Lok Sabha seats, including 87,000 men and 54,000 women. Additionally, the poll included the views of 27,000 first-time voters. The margin of error in the poll results is plus or minus 2 per cent. It's important to note that these are not election results but merely an opinion poll, and no attempt should be made to influence the elections based on these findings.


What Is The National Scenario?


According to the Zee News-MATRIZE poll, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to secure a significant majority if elections were held today. The survey indicates a sweeping victory for the NDA in major regions of North, East, and West India. However, the southern states seem inclined towards the Opposition INDIA bloc, as per the survey results. This disparity underscores the regional dynamics at play in Indian politics.


PM Modi's Big Southern Push Failing?


The Zee News-MATRIZE Lok Sabha Opinion Poll highlights a challenging scenario for the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the southern states of India. Despite efforts by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to expand their presence in the region, except for Karnataka, the saffron party's penetration remains limited ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a significant southern push with visits to Kerala and Tamil Nadu on February 27-28, marking his third visit to the region this year. This proactive approach underscores the importance of the southern states in the electoral calculus of the BJP.


Earlier in the year, PM Modi kickstarted his southern tour by visiting Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, and Kerala on January 2-3. During this visit, he inaugurated developmental projects worth significant investments. Additionally, PM Modi undertook an extensive 11-day tour of South India, visiting temples associated with the Ramayana ahead of the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22. In his recent two-day trip, the Prime Minister expressed confidence in the BJP's electoral prospects, predicting "double-digit" victories in Kerala and historic achievements in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 elections.


BJP's Targets 370


The BJP's performance in the southern states during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was relatively modest, with the party securing only 29 out of 127 seats across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and the Union Territory of Lakshadweep. Notably, the majority of these victories came from Karnataka and Telangana, with the party failing to make significant inroads in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh.


In the upcoming polls, the BJP's strategic focus lies on 84 seats categorized as 'weak,' which the party has historically struggled to win. Securing victories in these constituencies is crucial for the BJP to achieve its ambitious target of 370 seats for the party and over 400 seats for the NDA, as articulated by Prime Minister Modi during a recent rally in Jammu and Kashmir. Interestingly, there are speculations within the BJP regarding PM Modi's frequent visits to the south, fueling rumours of his potential candidacy from a constituency in Tamil Nadu or a neighbouring state, in addition to his stronghold in Varanasi.


State-Wise Analysis Of Zee News-MATRIZE Poll


West Bengal: The Trinamool Congress, under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee, is anticipated to maintain its dominance in West Bengal, with predictions indicating victory in 24 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP is expected to secure around 17 seats, while the INDIA alliance is projected to win just 1 seat.


Ladakh and Lakshadweep: The NDA is expected to emerge victorious in Ladakh, while the INDIA bloc is likely to triumph in Lakshadweep.


Chandigarh, Andaman, Goa, Dadra And Nagar Haveli: These regions are poised to witness victories for the NDA.


North East: The NDA is predicted to secure 10 seats, while the INDIA bloc may clinch 1 seat. Assam, in particular, is expected to favor the NDA with a projected victory in 11 out of 14 seats.


Tamil Nadu: The opinion poll forecasts 1 seat for the NDA and a significant haul of 36 seats for the Congress in Tamil Nadu.


Kerala: The INDIA bloc is anticipated to sweep all 20 seats in Kerala, highlighting the stronghold of regional parties in the state.


Telangana: The poll predicts 5 seats for the BJP and 9 seats for the Congress in Telangana, indicating a competitive electoral landscape.


Karnataka: The NDA is projected to gain momentum in Karnataka, with estimates indicating victory in 23 seats, while the Congress is expected to secure 5 seats.


Andhra Pradesh: The YSRCP is anticipated to secure 19 seats, with the TDP projected to win 6 seats, while the BJP and Congress may not secure any seats in the state.


The Zee News-MATRIZE Lok Sabha Opinion Poll provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections. While the NDA seems to enjoy a stronghold in several regions, the southern states present a formidable challenge. As the nation braces itself for the electoral battle, these poll findings serve as a foundation for further analysis and speculation, guiding political strategies in the run-up to the elections.