New Delhi Nov 12: Does the decreasing water level in the Ganga, increased incidences of malaria in parts of Gujarat and more frequent cyclones along Orissa's coast have anything in common? Yes, say researchers, these are manifestations of global warming in India.
A first-ever comprehensive scientific study on the impact of climate change on India, supported by the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests which was released on Tuesday, predicts changes in rainfall pattern in Western and Central India. Changed rainfall has a bearing on water systems and agriculture.
"Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation," said districts Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara in Orrissa, Nellore and Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu, Junagadh and Porbandar in Gujarat will see more of nature's fury, severe storms, due to climate changes taking place world-wide.
"The Himalayan river systems draining into the Ganga basin are gradually dying out," the report said. Decreasing water in these rivers, which include Ghagra, Sarda, Yamuna, even as they become choked from sediments deposited from their tributaries will reach alarming levels in the next half a century or so, it notes. A major source of water, the Himalayan glaciers like Gangotri and Chhota Shigri are shrinking rapidly.
With decreased rainfall in western India, water availability in the Sabarmati flowing through north Gujarat and Luni through Rajasthan, will get even more precarious, the report said.
The recent upsurge in dengue in urban areas of Delhi, Karnataka and Kerala, may be the result of a lethargic health system, but mosquitoes will hold sway in more states in 2080 due to increased temperatures and humidity. Already, mosquitoes have become resistant to pesticides and malaria parasites to anti-malarial drugs.
Climate changes will also effect agriculture, which will result in loss of farm revenue ranging between 9-25 per cent. Even a rise in temperature by 2 degree centigrade and a seven per cent increase in rainfall, will adversely affect agriculture in coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Small losses are also indicated for the major food grain-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana and Karnataka.
India's rich biodiversity in its forests, grassland, mangrove and coral reefs are at high risk from climate changes.
Colourful coral reefs along Indian coasts, and a major attraction at Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, will bleach due to temperature rise, while rise in sea level would submerge the mangroves and increase the salinity of wetlands along India's east coast. Sunderbans, also a world heritage site, is the home of the Royal Bengal Tiger. Energy, a precious resource, will be further stressed by increased temperatures that will push the demand for space-cooling, on the one hand, while heightened demand for groundwater would increase water-pumping, on the other.
India's dream of putting in place state-of-the-art infrastructure will also have to factor in vulnerability to cyclones, heavy rains, and landslides. Even as standing infrastructure will incur more costs on retrofitting and upkeep. The report has called for this information to be factored into the country's development planning. Knowing that areas which are more vulnerable to malaria, for instance, will need focused attention of health workers to adapt to the changed scenario.
Since, these changes will have a bearing on the gross domestic output, the report calls for a climate-friendly development process.