London, Dec 14: War in Iraq would blow a hole in the fragile recovery of global tourism whose hopes to overcome September 11 have already been hit by this year's attacks in Bali and Kenya, a leading industry group warned on Friday. Even without a US-led war against President Saddam Hussein in the equation, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has revised down its figures from an originally predicted six per cent rise in global tourism demand in 2003 to four per cent.
That is due to the persistent economic downturn, and renewed travel safety fears after terror attacks like the October nightclub bombings in Bali and last month's car bomb and missile attacks on Israeli targets in Kenya.
But if a conflict goes ahead, as many are predicting for early next year, instead of recovering to near pre-September 11 2001 levels, tourism demand could take a massive 12 per cent nosedive, the WTTC's president Jean-Claude Baumgarten said.

"War changes the picture completely," Baumgarten told reporters at a briefing on the WTTC's latest research on tourism trends and its plans for an international industry summit in Portugal next year.
"If we take the scenario of the Gulf War 10 years ago, there was a 12 per cent fall in demand in the aftermath. We assume it would be similar again."
According to the WTTC, which groups travel industry chief executives, tourism is the biggest world industry, accounting for 10 per cent of global domestic product if its myriad air, hotel, service and other sectors are taken as a whole. Bureau Report