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King makers: Muslim trump card in UP
Arun Chaubey Muslims in Uttar Pradesh play a crucial role during elections. Comprising around 18% of the total population of the state, this community decides the fate of about 36 candidates of the 80 in fray for the Lok Sabha.
Arun Chaubey
Muslims in Uttar Pradesh play a crucial role during elections. Comprising around 18% of the total population of the state, this community decides the fate of about 36 candidates of the 80 in fray for the Lok Sabha.
Muslim voters have traditionally rooted for the Congress Party, which after 1947 banked upon them along with Dalits and forward castes to remain in power for almost four-decades. But now, this voting pattern has undergone a transformation and Muslims no longer vote en-masse for the Congress. There are other options to choose from and that they feel can serve their interests better.
The demolition of Babri mosque on December 6, 1992 was a turning point for many Muslims. They felt let down by the Congress and felt a need for new leadership. The BJP had become an anathema then and after the Gujarat episode the abhorrence has only grown. That left parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party to fill the vacuum. The Muslim voting percentage can therefore be divided between the SP, BSP and to a certain extent the Congress. But in the 14th Lok Sabha elections, the community wants to consolidate its power by going for tactical voting to defeat BJP candidates.
On as many as 20 seats, Muslims have a clear upper hand. They can make or mar the fate of any candidate in western UP's seats like Rampur (42%), Muradabad (40%), Bijnore (38%), Saharanpur (38%) and Amroha (37%), while in constituencies like Meerut (30%), Kairna (29%), Barelli (28%), Sambhal (27%) and Muzaffarnagar (27%), they would play a crucial role.
On ten more seats--Budayun, Anwala, Aligarh, Pilibhit, Sitapur, Bulandshahar, Khiri, Shahabad, Baghpat and Agra--with their 15 to 20% votes, there swing could mean a setback to several sitting MPs, if they manage to save division of their votes. Comprehending their visible might in these constituencies and an impact on almost 10 more seats, Muslims do not want to waste their votes. And so the desperation of the All India Muslim Milli Council to keep the flock together! Since in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, eight Muslims candidates won and nine remained in the second position, the BSP has fielded 18 Muslims candidates in these elections to foil the SP's attempt to hijack the Muslim-Yadav muscle. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party--fighting on 69 seats--has fielded 11 Muslim candidates. Amid this scenario is left the Congress, which is heaving a sigh of relief, after winning over two prominent Muslim leaders: Shahabuddin--who is now a spent up force--and Rashid Alvi--a BSP discard.
The demolition of Babri mosque on December 6, 1992 was a turning point for many Muslims. They felt let down by the Congress and felt a need for new leadership. The BJP had become an anathema then and after the Gujarat episode the abhorrence has only grown. That left parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party to fill the vacuum. The Muslim voting percentage can therefore be divided between the SP, BSP and to a certain extent the Congress. But in the 14th Lok Sabha elections, the community wants to consolidate its power by going for tactical voting to defeat BJP candidates.
On as many as 20 seats, Muslims have a clear upper hand. They can make or mar the fate of any candidate in western UP's seats like Rampur (42%), Muradabad (40%), Bijnore (38%), Saharanpur (38%) and Amroha (37%), while in constituencies like Meerut (30%), Kairna (29%), Barelli (28%), Sambhal (27%) and Muzaffarnagar (27%), they would play a crucial role.
On ten more seats--Budayun, Anwala, Aligarh, Pilibhit, Sitapur, Bulandshahar, Khiri, Shahabad, Baghpat and Agra--with their 15 to 20% votes, there swing could mean a setback to several sitting MPs, if they manage to save division of their votes. Comprehending their visible might in these constituencies and an impact on almost 10 more seats, Muslims do not want to waste their votes. And so the desperation of the All India Muslim Milli Council to keep the flock together! Since in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, eight Muslims candidates won and nine remained in the second position, the BSP has fielded 18 Muslims candidates in these elections to foil the SP's attempt to hijack the Muslim-Yadav muscle. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party--fighting on 69 seats--has fielded 11 Muslim candidates. Amid this scenario is left the Congress, which is heaving a sigh of relief, after winning over two prominent Muslim leaders: Shahabuddin--who is now a spent up force--and Rashid Alvi--a BSP discard.