New Delhi, May 10: With the formal "end" of US military operations in Iraq, it is time to analyse the "real" factors and US motives behind the Gulf war. After all, the US has so far failed to find any weapon of mass destruction or even hardware of chemical and biological warfare. What, then, was this war about - command and control of oil? Restoration of democracy and removal of a "terrorist dictator"? Experiment of its weaponry to crush an ally of the former superpower Russia? There certainly cannot be formulaic answers to the circumstances and causes leading up to the spring war of 2003 in the ancient land of Mesopotamia. But, more than the ostentatious "regime change", it appears to be a combination of "economic-security" psyche working on the mind of the globocop.
One, therefore, just has to look into the 20th century basics of American society, polity, economics and geography which transformed Washington's strategy of isolation in the first 40 years to containment of communism in the 1950s, '60s, '70s and '80s to the present concept of "globalised hegemony" of the globe-master's vision, which is to accomplish the mission of ensuring submission of those who challenge, or are potential challengers of, its economic prosperity.
To understand this reality and the hardships of US economic burden, therefore, some simple facts and figures require recapitulation. The 1997 figures show the length of US railroads stood at 137,900 miles (222,000 km); roads at 39,44,597 miles (63,48,226 km); the number of passenger cars at 12,97,49,000; trucks and buses at 78,00,500; and certified route passenger/cargo air carriers at 77. All these figures for a population of 28 crore spread over a mammoth area of 36,75,031 sq miles (95,18,323 sq km). In fact, entire Europe plus Russia and the oil exporting countries of West Asia taken together will find it difficult to match the economic parametres of the US.
Understandably, therefore, the "national" interest psyche of US preachers makes them think and feel big. They teach the children about the "greatness" of the United States of America. Ask a school child what he knows about the US. The likely answers are: "We are the biggest, the greatest and the best. The longest river is the Mississippi-Missouri, the tallest building is in Chicago, the biggest aircraft is the Jumbo, the best car is the Cadillac and the fastest computer is Microsoft. Our history shows we have served and saved the world twice from catastrophe, in the First and the Second World War. Our capitalism has vanquished communism." Whether one agrees or disagrees with such conspicuous posturing of an overwhelming majority of Americans, is not very relevant perhaps.

The point is the US rulers have to ensure such images of "greatness" are established periodically. It, therefore, raises out of compulsion, and not choice, the US's perennial pursuit for excellence as the first boy of the class. Achievement may be a one-time act; its maintenance is a lifetime job. And the lifetime job for the US is the lifelong maintenance of its economic lifeline; oil and its sources, which implies the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of 13 members (seven Asian, four African and two South American).



The importance of "oil economics" is obvious as there is a major gap between production and consumption of the industrialised nations of the West, except for Great Britain and Norway, which are net exporters. In 1988, the US produced 455 million tons of crude but consumed 787 - 332 million tons or 42 per cent of consumption was imported. The situation in 1988 for West European countries was worse. They imported 366.2 million tons, or 65.2 per cent of their total consumption. For Japan, however, it was 100 per cent consumption of 100 per cent import of 215 million tons of crude. Today, the scenario remains unchanged even after 15 years with an increased consumption and an equally wide gap between indigenous production and demand of the West and Japan.



To understand the 2003 Iraq war, another figure would be a revelation. The total consumption of crude oil by the industrialised nations in 1988 was 1.64 billion tons, their production was 743.8 million tons and the gap was 896.2 million tons. Hence these countries were dependent on imports for 54.6 per cent of their oil consumption. Figures also show that 84 per cent of surplus oil available for export came from OPEC countries and only 16 per cent was available from non-OPEC producers and the East Bloc (China and the erstwhile USSR).



The West's strong dependence on OPEC oil was the reason OPEC imposed the price hike in the 1970s, rendering the West totally ineffective and impotent to combat these measures. Thus the "great oil game" began. The US-led West would be happy to have low oil price linked with excess supply of oil to rev up their economic engine. The opposite, however, would be the aim of the OPEC with a controlled production and a higher price tag generating surplus fund for their development and defence projects. The bottomline, therefore, for oil importers is to keep OPEC in good humour through economic aid and diplomacy and cultivation of their ruling elite through favours, whenever necessary.



Since the US is the top importer of oil for its vast aviation-military-industrial conglomerate, its equation with the 13 OPEC countries is of paramount importance for the future of its economy. A cursory glance, therefore, reveals the two South American OPEC producers have become virtual extensions of the US state service and macro-economics policy planning. Ecuador exports 38.2 per cent of its products to, and imports 30.5 per cent of its requirements from the US. However, the best news for the US was when Ecuador replaced its currency 'sucre' with US dollar in September 2000. The second OPEC member, Venezuela, too, banks heavily on the US with 48.5 per cent of its exports to, and 46 per cent imports from, the US, with the latter contributing 69.8 per cent to Venezuela's export revenue.



US cordiality and cash continue to flow into other OPEC countries of Africa: Algeria, Gabon and Nigeria; and, the Asian nations of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Qatar and UAE. The exceptions are Iran, Iraq (now conquered) and Libya (now relieved owing to US oil companies' insistence on acquiring multi-billion dollar oil contracts in that country).



Perhaps the conversion of OPEC to euro from dollar was beginning to strangulate the US currency, thereby rattling the economic engine of the superpower. The Iraq war has brought the US physically to the edge of oil wells of the Islamic world. So long oil remains the US motive for profit and hegemony, free world has no choice but to follow US diktat.