Frankfut, Jan 12: Europe's car market will contract or at best be flat this year, but none of the region's automakers are admitting they will feel the pinch, banking instead on new models to win them market share.

Most industry executives and analysts expect the European car market as a whole to slip one or two percent in 2003, with some predicting a decline of as much as six percent in the event of a prolonged war in Iraq. That means key new products like Volkswagen's long-awaited Golf, BMW's updated 5-series saloon and Renault's recently-launched Megane will be fighting crucial battles to lift their maker's profits and market share.

"The most probable scenario is a slight fall in the western European market in 2003," Renault sales and marketing director Francois Hinfray told a news conference on Wednesday. "But the bleak scenario, which would include a war in Iraq, is a five to six percent fall."
It has become an industry tradition for car executives to be loudly optimistic, if somewhat vague, about the year ahead as they bask in the bright lights of the Detroit auto show each January and trumpet new models and sexy concept cars.

This year the stakes are particularly high. "We'll have to look at new models and pricing to determine who'll be the winners and losers in 2003. In terms of market share, especially in a declining market, models are the most important factor," said one London-based autos analyst who expected the European market to be broadly flat this year.
Bureau Report