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IMF trims global growth forecast to 3.1%
Milan, Aug 29: The International Monetary Fund has slightly cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% in `03 from 3.2%, keeping its US outlook unchanged at 2.2% but cutting its forecasts for Germany and the euro zone, according to a draft IMF report.
Milan, Aug 29: The International Monetary Fund has slightly cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% in ’03 from 3.2%, keeping its US outlook unchanged at 2.2% but cutting its forecasts for Germany and the euro zone, according to a draft IMF report.
The IMF also sees a risk of ‘disorderly’ exchange movements resulting from the high US current account deficit, and sees Germany facing a possible mild decline in prices.
The draft World Economic Outlook, to be submitted at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Dubai in September, sees global economic growth accelerating in the second half of ’03 and reaching 4.0% in ’04.
But it sees a number of downside risks which include: uncertain after-effects of the burst stock market bubble on investment in industrial nations; the high US current account deficit which harbours the danger of a ‘disorderly’ adjustment of exchange rates; a strong rise in real estate prices in some industrial nations; continued vulnerability of highly indebted emerging economies, deterioration in financing conditions on international capital markets; particular risks for Japan and, to a lesser extent, Germany.
“This includes for Germany the risk of a mild price decline, as well as the financial sector, whose resilience is additionally threatened by continued economic weakness,” the IMF draft says
Bureau Report
The draft World Economic Outlook, to be submitted at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Dubai in September, sees global economic growth accelerating in the second half of ’03 and reaching 4.0% in ’04.
But it sees a number of downside risks which include: uncertain after-effects of the burst stock market bubble on investment in industrial nations; the high US current account deficit which harbours the danger of a ‘disorderly’ adjustment of exchange rates; a strong rise in real estate prices in some industrial nations; continued vulnerability of highly indebted emerging economies, deterioration in financing conditions on international capital markets; particular risks for Japan and, to a lesser extent, Germany.
“This includes for Germany the risk of a mild price decline, as well as the financial sector, whose resilience is additionally threatened by continued economic weakness,” the IMF draft says
Bureau Report