Srinagar, Sept 07: Is the situation in Kashmir back to square one? Security officials might avoid drawing conclusions but violent incidents that have swept the State in the past 10 days point to this grim fact. Over 36 militants have been gunned down in a series of encounters. Added to this are a dozen fatal casualties of securitymen. The picture turns grimmer with 35 civilian deaths. Security forces describe the upsurge in violence as "vengeful retaliation" to the killing of Jaish-e-Muhammad's Operational Chief, Ghazi Baba shot by BSF in an eight-hour gunbattle in the heart of Srinagar last Saturday. But has Baba's death had a lasting impact? Says BSF Inspector General Vijay Raman: "Not an upsurge, just a temporary retaliation." Mr Raman's assertions notwithstanding, there are many factors responsible for the escalation. In fact, the fresh spell of militant uproar started on August 27 when two fidayeen of Al-Mansooreen, a Lashkar front, engaged forces in a 12-hour gunfight in Srinagar at a time when the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, six Union Ministers and a host of Chief Ministers were conferencing barely 6 km away at Sk International.

Kashmir-watchers believe that the place and timing of the attack was meant to show that J&K was not as normal as portrayed by Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed.

Next came a series of landmine explosions on the Srinagar-Jammu highway triggered by Hizbul. This was followed by an ongoing encounter with Lashkar in Kathua, the longest gunbattle in eight years.
Security experts say, militants were lying low due to local and global compulsions during and after the Iraq war. Action was restricted on directions from Pakistan, the powerhouse of terrorism. "Pakistan could have been the target of the war against terrorism, had militant activities continued in J&K and other parts of India," says Shabir Ahmad, a lecturer. On the other hand, local militant cadres had hoped that a meaningful dialogue might begin on the political chessboard of India and Pakistan to resolve the J&K issue as the Chief Minister and his daughter Mehbooba had promised. Mufti's adversaries claim that the militants had an understanding with the family to help them reach the seat of power. "But when they realised that Mufti was breaching his promises, they struck with venom," says advocate Abdul Hamid Dar.

Officials admit they would be facing a tough challenge from militants in coming days. They say over 3,000 militants are operating in J&K. What has disturbed the security forces the most is the re-emergence of militants in Srinagar after a long gap. DIG BSF, K Srinavasan, says 90 foreign mercenaries have sneaked in there, "a potential group to create havoc".