Washington, Feb 10: Tectonic changes in world geo-politics seem to be in the offing as the United States prepares to go to war with Iraq supported only by its faithful ally Great Britain.
Saudi Arabia, whose ties with Washington have come under strain lately, is suggesting that the United States withdraw its troops from the oil kingdom as a prelude to the introduction of some democracy in the country. Meanwhile, the United States has begun making overtures to Iran, one of the trinity of evil in its books, ahead of taking on Iraq.
Greater US engagement with a post-war Iraq, a recast policy on Iran, and distancing from Saudi Arabia will mean a dramatic shift in region’s geo-politics. Elsewhere, in Europe, France and Germany have disagreed sharply with American policy on Iraq to the extent that the United States is making its displeasure, even anger, public. There are mutterings that its newer European allies from the old Soviet bloc are more reliable than what is being described darkly as “old Europe.”
So deep-felt is US irritation with its European allies that in an edit page comment in The New York Times on Sunday, influential columnist Thomas Friedman argued that France should be dumped from the UN Security Council and replaced by India.
In Munich, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Germany's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer clashed over Iraq in a spectacular display of verbal pyrotechnics that is seldom seen in public. Although it is too early to forecast a cleave between US and its continental allies, the chill is unmistakable. In fact, the profound changes in the air place India squarely in the thick of strategic realignments. It now appears that India’s recent engagement with Iran did not particularly perturb Washington because the US itself has been secretly talking to Teheran and seeking assurances that it will not stand in way of the upcoming operations against the Saddam Hussein regime. In fact, India could well serve as a bridge between the US-Iran rapproachment.



India has also quickly tempered its stand on the imminent US attack on Iraq despite the domestic compulsions arising from its 150 million Muslim citizens and the economic turmoil a war in the region could bring. On his recent visit to Washington, Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal merely noted India’s concerns arising from the possible war on Iraq without resorting to the moralizing tone that New Delhi was prone to in the past.



"No one wishes a conflict but everyone expects its," Sibal observed drily at a meeting with policy heads at the Carnegie Endowment last week sans the hectoring that India is normally known for.



Such restraint has already begun to register in Washington. In suggesting that India replace France in the UN Security Council, NY Times’ Thomas Friedman argued that "India is just so much more serious than France these days."



"France is so caught up with its need to differentiate itself from America to feel important, it's become silly," Friedman wrote. "India has grown out of that game. India may be ambivalent about war in Iraq, but it comes to its ambivalence honestly. Also, France can't see how the world has changed since the end of the cold war. India can."



The NYT also reported over the weekend that Saudi Arabia's leadership has "made far-reaching decisions to prepare for an era of military disengagement from the United States," after the war on Iraq, to enact democratic reforms at home, and to rein in the conservative clergy that has shared power in the kingdom.



Bureau Report