New York, Oct 17: Analysts see scant prospect of a meaningful fall in US unemployment for months to come, despite tentative signs of a turn in the jobs market in recent days, a poll showed. In a reversal of the last survey in July, analysts have boosted their forecasts for GDP growth this year but trimmed them for β€˜04.

Annual growth is now seen at 3.5% in β€˜03, edging up to 3.6% next year. But such an improvement, while welcome, will not be enough to make an appreciable dent in unemployment. Median forecasts from the 25 economists surveyed are for the jobless rate to average 5.9% for all of β€˜04, a negligible change from the 6.1% expected in the current year. The surprise 57,000 rise in payrolls for September offers some hope of a turnaround, but a lot more is needed.
β€œIt would take jobs growth of 200,000 to 300,000 a month for six months or more to make a dent in unemployment,” said James Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan. He noted that as the labour market picks up it will tend to attract discouraged job seekers back into the labour force and thus keep the unemployment rate elevated. Bureau Report